CAJ | 학술논문

文章通过建立一个包含货币政策、具有自动稳定机制的财政政策、金融中介机构以及粘性价格、粘性工资等特性的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)，在校准模型结构参数的基础上，运用脉冲响应技术手段分析了财政政策、货币政策以及贷款、消费偏好等8个外生随机冲击对我国经济波动的影响。研究发现：货币供应量、消费偏好和政府购买支出等冲击均导致我国经济上升，即产出和通货膨胀均上升，贷款和技术冲击导致产出增加而通货膨胀下降，投资调整成本冲击导致产出和通货膨胀均下降，价格加成和工资加成冲击均导致产出下降、通货膨胀上升；货币供应量、技术和投资调整成本冲击是我国经济波动的主要来源，财政政策对中国经济波动的影响相对较小。
문장통과건립일개포함화폐정책、구유자동은정궤제적재정정책、금융중개궤구이급점성개격、점성공자등특성적신개은사주의동태수궤일반균형모형(DSGE)，재교준모형결구삼수적기출상，운용맥충향응기술수단분석료재정정책、화폐정책이급대관、소비편호등8개외생수궤충격대아국경제파동적영향。연구발현：화폐공응량、소비편호화정부구매지출등충격균도치아국경제상승，즉산출화통화팽창균상승，대관화기술충격도치산출증가이통화팽창하강，투자조정성본충격도치산출화통화팽창균하강，개격가성화공자가성충격균도치산출하강、통화팽창상승；화폐공응량、기술화투자조정성본충격시아국경제파동적주요래원，재정정책대중국경제파동적영향상대교소。
This paper constructs a New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) , which characterized by monetary policy, self-adjusting fiscal policy, financial intermediary, sticky wages and prices etc. and then simulates the impacts of eight exogenous stochastic shocks such as fiscal and monetary policies, credit and consumption preference etc. on China's economic fluctuations by employing impulse response on the basis of parameters calibration. The findings are as follow:the shock of money supply, consumption preference and government expenditure all have positive effects on Chinese economy, driving output and inflation to increase, the shock of credit and technology drive output to increase and inflation to decrease, the shock of investment adjustment cost has negative effect on output and inflation, the shock of price and wage mark-up decrease output and increase inflation;the shock of money supply, technology and investment adjustment cost are the main sources of China's economic fluctuations, however, the effect of fiscal policy on China's economic fluctuation is relatively limited.