CAJ | 학술논문

本文从有效土地供给角度验证了中国“土地限供”政策的正确性和有效性，并表达了对“扩供抑价论”的否定。省际面板数据的门槛模型估计结果表明：中国城市的土地有效供给所产生的商品房价格效应具有显著的“三门槛”效应，当商品房价格小于3945.11元／平方米时，有效土地供给对商品房价格不存在显著影响，当商品房价格跨越该门槛时，有效土地供给的价格效应变的显著为正，并且当商品房价格超过8230元／平方米时，价格效应会变的更大。2010年之前，有效土地供给价格效应不显著的省份个数多于显著省份个数，而2010年后大多数省份的有效土地供给价格效应变的显著，并且有5个省份已经跨越了第三个门槛值，土地供给的价格效应在这些地区表现的更加强烈。
본문종유효토지공급각도험증료중국“토지한공”정책적정학성화유효성，병표체료대“확공억개론”적부정。성제면판수거적문함모형고계결과표명：중국성시적토지유효공급소산생적상품방개격효응구유현저적“삼문함”효응，당상품방개격소우3945.11원／평방미시，유효토지공급대상품방개격불존재현저영향，당상품방개격과월해문함시，유효토지공급적개격효응변적현저위정，병차당상품방개격초과8230원／평방미시，개격효응회변적경대。2010년지전，유효토지공급개격효응불현저적성빈개수다우현저성빈개수，이2010년후대다수성빈적유효토지공급개격효응변적현저，병차유5개성빈이경과월료제삼개문함치，토지공급적개격효응재저사지구표현적경가강렬。
In this paper,we verify the validity of the Chinese policy of land supply and effectiveness from the perspective of effective land supply,and express Negative attitude to “Expanding supply for lower price”theory.The threshold of the provincial panel data model to estimate the results show that the urban land effective supply of commercial housing price effect has significant effect of the “three threshold”,when commodity house price is less than 3945 .1 1 yuan/square meters,an effective land supply of commercial housing prices there is no significant effect,when commodity house prices across the threshold,the effective supply of land price effect is significantly positive,and when more than 8230 yuan/square meters,the price of house price effect will be more;Before 2010,effective land supply price effect was not significant number of provinces more than a significant number of provinces,most provinces and 2010 effective land supply price effect significantly,and there are five provinces have crossed the third threshold value,the price of land supply effect in these areas.