CAJ | 학술논문

基于汾河流域12个气象站1961—2012年降水资料，采用统计、线性倾向估计和Morlet子波分析等方法，对流域自然降水量变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：52年间，汾河流域降水量在波动中不断减少，1990年代后，减少速率加快，自然水资源短缺现象趋于严重，且变差系数大，表明流域年降水量年际变化大，降水匮乏，水资源利用价值较低。流域降水量的周期表现出多尺度特征，2010年代后开始进入丰水期。流域年和季节降水量的突变点及变化趋势表现出明显的季节气候特点。
기우분하류역12개기상참1961—2012년강수자료，채용통계、선성경향고계화Morlet자파분석등방법，대류역자연강수량변화특정진행료분석。결과표명：52년간，분하류역강수량재파동중불단감소，1990년대후，감소속솔가쾌，자연수자원단결현상추우엄중，차변차계수대，표명류역년강수량년제변화대，강수궤핍，수자원이용개치교저。류역강수량적주기표현출다척도특정，2010년대후개시진입봉수기。류역년화계절강수량적돌변점급변화추세표현출명현적계절기후특점。
Based on precipitation data from twelve weather stations in Fenhe Basin from 1961 to 2012, using statistical method, linear trend estimation, and Morlet wavelet analysis method to analyze variation characteristics of natural precipitation.Results show that the natural precipitation in Fenhe Basin has been continually reducing during the recent 52 years.Since the 1990s, the reducing rate has been increasing and shortage of water resource became more and more serious.Also, the coefficient of variation has been bigger than ever, which means the annual variation of precipitation over Fenhe Basin being too large, lacking in rain and water resource utilization of low value.The cycle of precipitation in Fenhe Basin has multi-scale characteristics.In the 2010s, the abundant water period started.The abrupt junction and variation trend of precipitation over years and seasons in Fenhe Basin plays apparent seasonal weather characteristics.