CAJ | 학술논문

基于IPCC对全球和中国的气候变化趋势，利用1990—2011年气象资料，采用增量情景设置方法，分析气候变化情景下洪泽湖以上流域水资源的演变趋势。结果表明：该流域水资源量对降雨变化有较强的敏感性，实际蒸散发对温度变化的敏感性较强。与基准期相比，在气温同等条件、降水增加情景下，流域水资源量呈增加趋势；在降水同等条件、气温升高情景下，流域的实际蒸发会增加，导致水资源量呈减少的趋势。径流年内分配受降水变化影响较大；随着降水增加，径流年内分配更集中，加大年内径流分配差异，可能加大流域湖泊调蓄压力。
기우IPCC대전구화중국적기후변화추세，이용1990—2011년기상자료，채용증량정경설치방법，분석기후변화정경하홍택호이상류역수자원적연변추세。결과표명：해류역수자원량대강우변화유교강적민감성，실제증산발대온도변화적민감성교강。여기준기상비，재기온동등조건、강수증가정경하，류역수자원량정증가추세；재강수동등조건、기온승고정경하，류역적실제증발회증가，도치수자원량정감소적추세。경류년내분배수강수변화영향교대；수착강수증가，경류년내분배경집중，가대년내경류분배차이，가능가대류역호박조축압력。
Climate change has caused re-allocation of water resources in the spatial and temporal pattern, leading to more frequent occurrence of extreme hydrological events.Based on the predictions to global and China climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) , the authors of this paper analyzed the evolutionary tendency of water resources in the basin above Hongze Lake under the condition of climate change by the method of setting incremental scene and using the climatological data of the years of 1990 to 2011 .The results show that the catchment runoff was sensitive to precipitation changes; the evaporation was relatively sensitive to temperature changes.Compared with the baseline period, in the scenario of increasing precipitation and the same temperature, the water resources in the basin will be in the tendency of increasing; in the scenario of the same precipitation and temperature rise, the actual evaporation in the basin will increase, causing the tendency of water resources decreasing;the annual distribution of runoff is greatly influenced by the change of precipitation; runoff annual distribution becomes more concentrated with the increase of precipitation, which may result in the increasing the difference of runoff annual distribution, and increasing the regulating pressure of Hongze Lake.