CAJ | 학술논문

基于四川省2002－2012年的体育用品业年度数据和相关经济数据为样本，利用基于VAR模型的单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验以及脉冲响应函数分析等计量方法，针对四川省体育用品业发展对第三产业增长的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明：从长期来看，通过协整检验可以得知，四川省体育用品业与第三产业增长之间存在长期的均衡关系；从短期来看，体育用品与第三产业间存在着相互促进的效应；当滞后期为1时，格兰杰检验拒绝了“体育用品业产值不是第三产业增长的原因”的原假设，说明四川省体育用品业产值与第三产业增长间存在单向的因果关系。
기우사천성2002－2012년적체육용품업년도수거화상관경제수거위양본，이용기우VAR모형적단위근검험、Johansen협정검험、격란걸인과검험이급맥충향응함수분석등계량방법，침대사천성체육용품업발전대제삼산업증장적영향진행료실증분석。결과표명：종장기래간，통과협정검험가이득지，사천성체육용품업여제삼산업증장지간존재장기적균형관계；종단기래간，체육용품여제삼산업간존재착상호촉진적효응；당체후기위1시，격란걸검험거절료“체육용품업산치불시제삼산업증장적원인”적원가설，설명사천성체육용품업산치여제삼산업증장간존재단향적인과관계。
Based on annual data of sports goods manufacturing industry and other related economic data in Sichuan Province from 2001 - 2012,this paper,depending the methods of unit root test,Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function based on Vector Auto - regression model(VAR),conducts an empirical analysis on the influence of sports goods manufacturing industry on regional economic growth. The results show that the cointegration test indicates that,in the long run,long - term equilibrium relationship exists between sports goods manufacturing output and the tertiary industry;while,in the short term,there is a mutual reinforcing effect between them. When the lag period is 1,Granger causality test rejects the original supposition that “sports goods manufacturing industry output is not the Granger cause of the tertiary industry," indicating a one - way causal relationship between sports goods manufacturing output and the tertiary industry in Sichuan Province.