CAJ | 학술논문

采用中国各省区2000-2012年的面板数据，计算各省区碳排放，并采用灰色关联度模型分析经济因素与碳排放之间的关联程度。结果显示：从时间序列看，各省区碳排放、人均碳排放呈现逐年增加态势，而碳排放强度逐年下降；从空间序列看，三者都呈现明显的区域差异，不同经济因素对碳排放的关联度存在省际差异；从产业结构看：东部地区碳排放与第三产业关联性最大，中西部地区碳排放与第二产业关联性最大。而居民消费水平和对外开放度与碳排放的关联度同样表现出东部地区＞中部地区＞西部地区的规律，说明经济发展水平与碳排放之间存在区域的差异性。
채용중국각성구2000-2012년적면판수거，계산각성구탄배방，병채용회색관련도모형분석경제인소여탄배방지간적관련정도。결과현시：종시간서렬간，각성구탄배방、인균탄배방정현축년증가태세，이탄배방강도축년하강；종공간서렬간，삼자도정현명현적구역차이，불동경제인소대탄배방적관련도존재성제차이；종산업결구간：동부지구탄배방여제삼산업관련성최대，중서부지구탄배방여제이산업관련성최대。이거민소비수평화대외개방도여탄배방적관련도동양표현출동부지구＞중부지구＞서부지구적규률，설명경제발전수평여탄배방지간존재구역적차이성。
Based on panel data of China’s provinces from 2000 to 2012,this paper calculates the carbon emission in China’s provinces and analyzes the correlation between the carbon emission and economic fac-tors through using grey correlation model.The results are as follows:from the perspective of time series, the total energy consumption and per-capita carbon emission in every province is increasing by years,while carbon intensity is decreasing simultaneously;from the perspective of spatial series,the three objects pres-ents obvious regional differences,and different economic factors in different provinces have different influ-ence on carbon emission;from the perspective of industrial structure,the carbon emission in eastern regions is most related to the tertiary industry,in central and western regions,the secondary industry;the correla-tion between residents’consumption level and opening degree,and carbon emission manifests the law of eastern regions > central regions > western regions,which shows there exist regional differentiation be-tween economic development level and carbon emission.