CAJ | 학술논문

2014年，世界乙烯产能达1.57亿吨/年，预计2015年将增至1.64亿吨/年。世界乙烯工业继续稳步发展的格局未变，但地区发展出现分化，页岩气、煤化工和炼化一体化分别成为北美、东北亚和中东三地乙烯工业的发展主题。尽管2014年下半年以来的油价下跌缩小了各路线的竞争力差异，但中东和北美依然保持绝对成本优势，而国内的煤化工和丙烷脱氢等路线将受到较大冲击，也为2015年国内乙烯工业发展带来一定不确定因素。预计2015年，国内乙烯产能将从2014年的2060万吨/年增至2264万吨/年，受国内经济增速下降等因素影响，乙烯当量消费增速下滑至4.1%左右。
2014년，세계을희산능체1.57억둔/년，예계2015년장증지1.64억둔/년。세계을희공업계속은보발전적격국미변，단지구발전출현분화，혈암기、매화공화련화일체화분별성위북미、동북아화중동삼지을희공업적발전주제。진관2014년하반년이래적유개하질축소료각로선적경쟁력차이，단중동화북미의연보지절대성본우세，이국내적매화공화병완탈경등로선장수도교대충격，야위2015년국내을희공업발전대래일정불학정인소。예계2015년，국내을희산능장종2014년적2060만둔/년증지2264만둔/년，수국내경제증속하강등인소영향，을희당량소비증속하활지4.1%좌우。
World ethylene capacity reached 157 Mt/a in 2014, which is estimated to be 167 Mt/a in 2015. World ethylene industry continues its stable growth these years, while regional trends appear differentiation. Shale gas, coal-based olefins and refining&chemical integration have themed the trends of North America, Northeast Asia and Middle East. Although the recent oil price deflation has reduced the cost gap between each routes, the Middle East and North America remain their cost advantage, while the domestic CTO, MTO and PDH have suffered a greater impact, which will bring uncertainties to the domestic ethylene industry in 2015. Given the above factors, China’s ethylene capacity is estimated to increase from 20.60Mt/a in 2014 to 22.64Mt/a in 2015, while the growth rate of China’s ethylene equivalent consumption will slow down to 4.1%resulting from some factors such as the domestic economic growth rate decline.