工业技术经济
工業技術經濟
공업기술경제
INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY & ECONOMY
2015年
5期
124-133
,共10页
风险预警模型%主成分分析%Logistic回归%违约概率%行业预警准确度
風險預警模型%主成分分析%Logistic迴歸%違約概率%行業預警準確度
풍험예경모형%주성분분석%Logistic회귀%위약개솔%행업예경준학도
risk early-warning model%principal component analysis%Logistic regression%probability of default%early-warning accuracy of industries
以2010～2012年期间我国沪深A股因财务困境陷入ST的公司和按照1∶2比例配比的正常公司作为研究对象，并根据行业特点对样本进行划分。同时，选取能够反映企业盈利能力、股东获利能力、现金流量能力、营运能力、发展能力、偿债能力的30个财务指标，在主成分分析的基础上构建各年度的Logit模型，对各行业的违约概率和判别准确度分别进行分析。结果表明，不同行业的违约概率和判别准确度均存在显著差异且存在共性特征。
以2010～2012年期間我國滬深A股因財務睏境陷入ST的公司和按照1∶2比例配比的正常公司作為研究對象，併根據行業特點對樣本進行劃分。同時，選取能夠反映企業盈利能力、股東穫利能力、現金流量能力、營運能力、髮展能力、償債能力的30箇財務指標，在主成分分析的基礎上構建各年度的Logit模型，對各行業的違約概率和判彆準確度分彆進行分析。結果錶明，不同行業的違約概率和判彆準確度均存在顯著差異且存在共性特徵。
이2010～2012년기간아국호심A고인재무곤경함입ST적공사화안조1∶2비례배비적정상공사작위연구대상，병근거행업특점대양본진행화분。동시，선취능구반영기업영리능력、고동획리능력、현금류량능력、영운능력、발전능력、상채능력적30개재무지표，재주성분분석적기출상구건각년도적Logit모형，대각행업적위약개솔화판별준학도분별진행분석。결과표명，불동행업적위약개솔화판별준학도균존재현저차이차존재공성특정。
Taking indebted ST listed companies and twice as many the non -ST of Shanghai and Shenzhen A -share from 2010 to 2012 as sample , the paper divides the sample into different kinds according to industry characteristics . Then we select 30 financial indica-tors that can reflect the business profitability , profitability of shareholders , cash flow capacity , operational capacity , development capacity and debt solvency . Finally , a Logit model based on principal component analysis method is proposed to analyze the predictive performance of the model for default probabilities and distinguish accuracy in different industries . The results show that there were significant differences and common features in default probabilities and distinguish accuracy of different industries .
