CAJ | 학술논문

城镇化是中国经济发展的重要战略之一，当前中国城镇化达到了53.73％，由于城镇化还具有相当大的空间，因此很多学者担心城镇化会带来能源消费的大量提升，影响能源安全。本文通过详实的数据和分析，说明了中国的能源消费最大的决定因素不是城镇化，而是工业化，工业和其中的制造业是中国能源消费的主导因素，决定了中国能源消费的增长和变动，城镇化并不会带来能源消耗的大幅上升，工业化的结构变动才是能源消费的主导因素。因此，城镇化战略并不会影响我国的能源安全，甚至能够促使能源效率的提升提高我国能源消费的质量，使中国的能源消费集约化。因此我们需要进行工业升级和科技创新，并进行结构升级，从而降低能源消费强度，缓解能源供求压力。
성진화시중국경제발전적중요전략지일，당전중국성진화체도료53.73％，유우성진화환구유상당대적공간，인차흔다학자담심성진화회대래능원소비적대량제승，영향능원안전。본문통과상실적수거화분석，설명료중국적능원소비최대적결정인소불시성진화，이시공업화，공업화기중적제조업시중국능원소비적주도인소，결정료중국능원소비적증장화변동，성진화병불회대래능원소모적대폭상승，공업화적결구변동재시능원소비적주도인소。인차，성진화전략병불회영향아국적능원안전，심지능구촉사능원효솔적제승제고아국능원소비적질량，사중국적능원소비집약화。인차아문수요진행공업승급화과기창신，병진행결구승급，종이강저능원소비강도，완해능원공구압력。
Urbanization is one of the important strategic of Chinese economic development . The current Chinese urbanization reached 53.73% , because the urbanization also has considerable space , therefore many scholars worry that a rising of the urbanization will bring the impact of energy consumption , energy security . Based on detailed data and analysis , this paper explains the determinants of Chi-na maximum energy consumption but not urbanization , industrialization , industry and the manufacturing industry is the dominant factor Chi-na energy consumption , determines the China energy consumption growth and change , urbanization will bring large amplitude and energy consumption increase , structure change of industrialization is the dominant factor of energy consumption . Therefore , the strategy of urban-ization will not affect our country's energy security , even to improve China's energy consumption quality through improved energy efficiency , and to make China consumers of energy intensive , industrial upgrading , technological innovation , and the upgrading of the structure are needed .