CAJ | 학술논문

处于不同发展水平和不同收入阶段的国家，由于经济社会发展特征不一致，城市化对能源强度的影响也可能不同。采用52个国家1980—2010年的数据，利用面板门限回归计量方法，以人均收入水平为门限变量，检验城市化对能源强度的非线性影响，分析表明：城市化与能源强度之间存在显著的双门限效应，在不同收入水平下两者之间的关系存在差异；人均收入水平的提高将降低能源强度，而工业化水平的提升会提高能源强度；城市化水平的提高将增加能源强度，其中，处于中间收入水平的国家的城市化对能源效率提高的负面影响最低。从我国目前的发展阶段来看，城市化对能源利用效率最大程度的负面影响还有一段“缓冲时期”，应转变城市化发展模式，提高城市化质量，充分发挥城市化的集聚效应和规模经济。
처우불동발전수평화불동수입계단적국가，유우경제사회발전특정불일치，성시화대능원강도적영향야가능불동。채용52개국가1980—2010년적수거，이용면판문한회귀계량방법，이인균수입수평위문한변량，검험성시화대능원강도적비선성영향，분석표명：성시화여능원강도지간존재현저적쌍문한효응，재불동수입수평하량자지간적관계존재차이；인균수입수평적제고장강저능원강도，이공업화수평적제승회제고능원강도；성시화수평적제고장증가능원강도，기중，처우중간수입수평적국가적성시화대능원효솔제고적부면영향최저。종아국목전적발전계단래간，성시화대능원이용효솔최대정도적부면영향환유일단“완충시기”，응전변성시화발전모식，제고성시화질량，충분발휘성시화적집취효응화규모경제。
Due to the different characters of economic social development and countries at different development level and income level, urbanization makes different impact on energy intensity. Using data from 52 countries in 1980?2010, by panel threshold regression method, per capita income playing as threshold variable, nonlinear influence of urbanization on energy intensity is examined. It is found that there are two thresholds between urbanization and energy intensity, and the relationships between the two is different at different income level. Higher per capita income results in lower energy intensity, while higher industrialization level leads to higher energy intensity. Higher urbanization level can increase energy intensity. For those countries whose per capita income is in the middle, the negative effect of urbanization on energy efficiency is minimum. In the view of the development stage of China, there is buffer period for the negative effect of urbanization on energy efficiency. It is suggested to shift the development mode of urbanization, to promote urbanization quality, to exert agglomeration effect of urbanization and to develop scale economy.