中国农村水利水电
中國農村水利水電
중국농촌수이수전
CHINA RURAL WATER AND HYDROPOWER
2015年
5期
102-104,108
,共4页
三口%K endall检验%分流量%三峡水库
三口%K endall檢驗%分流量%三峽水庫
삼구%K endall검험%분류량%삼협수고
Sankou%Kendall rank test%flow%Three Gorges Project
根据实测资料,采用肯德尔秩次趋势性显著检验(Kendall rank test)表征了松滋口、太平口、藕池口三口入洞庭湖的水量变化趋势,同时预测了三口分流量变化。结果表明未来荆南三口分流量将呈逐年减少趋势,预计到三峡水库运用后第5个10年(2043-2052年)与第二个10年(2013-2022年)相比,年平均入湖水量将减少64亿m3,2032年以前是三口分流减少较快的时期,占总减少量的85%以上,此后逐渐趋缓。
根據實測資料,採用肯德爾秩次趨勢性顯著檢驗(Kendall rank test)錶徵瞭鬆滋口、太平口、藕池口三口入洞庭湖的水量變化趨勢,同時預測瞭三口分流量變化。結果錶明未來荊南三口分流量將呈逐年減少趨勢,預計到三峽水庫運用後第5箇10年(2043-2052年)與第二箇10年(2013-2022年)相比,年平均入湖水量將減少64億m3,2032年以前是三口分流減少較快的時期,佔總減少量的85%以上,此後逐漸趨緩。
근거실측자료,채용긍덕이질차추세성현저검험(Kendall rank test)표정료송자구、태평구、우지구삼구입동정호적수량변화추세,동시예측료삼구분류량변화。결과표명미래형남삼구분류량장정축년감소추세,예계도삼협수고운용후제5개10년(2043-2052년)여제이개10년(2013-2022년)상비,년평균입호수량장감소64억m3,2032년이전시삼구분류감소교쾌적시기,점총감소량적85%이상,차후축점추완。
Based on measured data ,the changing trends of water inflow form Sankou to Dongting Lake are analyzed by using Kendall rank test in this paper .The changing in flow is also predicted .The results show that flows of Sankou decrease year after year .Com‐pared with next ten years (2013-2022) ,water inflow form Sankou to Dongting Lake would decrease by 6 .4bn cubic metres in the fifth ten-year (2043-2052) plan after the operation of the Three Gorges projects .The flow has a fast decrease period before 2023 , which accounts for more than 85% of total reduction .After 2023 ,the flow would experience a slow reduction .