经济理论与经济管理
經濟理論與經濟管理
경제이론여경제관리
ECONOMIC THEORY AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT
2015年
5期
40-50
,共11页
行业价格指数%传导机制%动态贝叶斯网络%货币供给
行業價格指數%傳導機製%動態貝葉斯網絡%貨幣供給
행업개격지수%전도궤제%동태패협사망락%화폐공급
price index of industry%transmission mechanism%dynamic Bayesian network%money sup-ply
本文通过运用动态贝叶斯网络模型分析方法，测算了2000—2014年上中下游价格指数及各细分行业价格指数之间的传导效应，并分析了货币供给因素对不同价格指数的驱动作用。结果表明，货币供应量对上中下游所有价格指数均能产生影响，对下游价格指数 CPI 的驱动效应最显著；上中游价格指数向下游价格指数逐级传导效应显著，但跨级传导效应呈递减趋势；同时下游价格指数的变动也会倒逼中上游价格指数变化，但跨级传导效应基本无趋势性。
本文通過運用動態貝葉斯網絡模型分析方法，測算瞭2000—2014年上中下遊價格指數及各細分行業價格指數之間的傳導效應，併分析瞭貨幣供給因素對不同價格指數的驅動作用。結果錶明，貨幣供應量對上中下遊所有價格指數均能產生影響，對下遊價格指數 CPI 的驅動效應最顯著；上中遊價格指數嚮下遊價格指數逐級傳導效應顯著，但跨級傳導效應呈遞減趨勢；同時下遊價格指數的變動也會倒逼中上遊價格指數變化，但跨級傳導效應基本無趨勢性。
본문통과운용동태패협사망락모형분석방법，측산료2000—2014년상중하유개격지수급각세분행업개격지수지간적전도효응，병분석료화폐공급인소대불동개격지수적구동작용。결과표명，화폐공응량대상중하유소유개격지수균능산생영향，대하유개격지수 CPI 적구동효응최현저；상중유개격지수향하유개격지수축급전도효응현저，단과급전도효응정체감추세；동시하유개격지수적변동야회도핍중상유개격지수변화，단과급전도효응기본무추세성。
This paper employs the dynamic Bayesian network method to measure the price transmis-sion of different stages,the transmission effect among the subdivided industries of different price indexes between 2000 and 2014.This paper analyzes the driving effect of money supply factor on different price in-dexes.The results show that the conduction effects of the monetary policy to the upstream and the down-stream price indexes are all significant and the effect to CPI is the strongest.In the process of transmis-sion,the prices in the early and intermediate stages have significant causal relationships with the price in the last stage by degrees while the cross-stage conduction effects decrease.Besides,the price violation in the last stage will drive changes of the prices in the early and intermediate stages in reverse but there is not trend among the cross-stage conduction effects.
