CAJ | 학술논문

提出了一种基于马尔科夫修正的负荷预测模型在电力能效监测终端中应用的方法。首先使用指数平滑法对电力能效监测终端历史用电量负荷数据进行预处理，弱化用电量随机波动造成的影响，得出用电量负荷的总体趋势，然后使用马尔可夫链对指数平滑法的绝对误差进行修正，克服指数平滑滞后效应造成的预测精度不高的问题，从而提高了预测的准确性。最后就马尔可夫负荷预测模型在能效监测终端上的应用做了相应的介绍，并以真实电力负荷数据进行算例分析，测试了预测模型在实际中的性能。
제출료일충기우마이과부수정적부하예측모형재전력능효감측종단중응용적방법。수선사용지수평활법대전력능효감측종단역사용전량부하수거진행예처리，약화용전량수궤파동조성적영향，득출용전량부하적총체추세，연후사용마이가부련대지수평활법적절대오차진행수정，극복지수평활체후효응조성적예측정도불고적문제，종이제고료예측적준학성。최후취마이가부부하예측모형재능효감측종단상적응용주료상응적개소，병이진실전력부하수거진행산례분석，측시료예측모형재실제중적성능。
In this paper , a method is presented in which the Markov correction-based load forecasting model applied to the power efficiency monitoring terminal .Firstly, the historical load data of the power efficiency monitoring terminal is pre-processed by using of an exponential smoothing method , and weakening the impact of the of electricity random fluctuations , thus the overall trend of power load is computed .Secondly , the absolute error of exponential smoothing method is corrected by using of the Markov chain , and the problem of lower prediction accuracy is overcome which caused by the exponential smoothing lag , so that the precision of the prediction is improved .Finally , the Markov cor-rection-based load forecasting model is introduced in the application of energy efficiency monitoring terminal , and the performance of forecasting model in actually is tested by the real power load data for numerical example analysis .