CAJ | 학술논문

基于20112012年观测数据，应用Feflow软件，构建了民勤绿洲地区的潜水承压水三维数值模型。应用该模型对研究区未来5～10 a内地下水位动态变化进行了预测。结果表明：目前用水条件下，经过一系列综合措施，地下水位下降趋势得到有效遏制；但在未来5～10 a内，民勤地下水位依然整体以低幅度持续下降。上游坝区的地下水漏斗日益扩大，下游湖区地下水漏斗因青土湖生态泄水而得到有效恢复，但随着地下水埋深日益增大，下游红沙梁区域出现了新的地下水漏斗。另外，当地符合植物存活条件（地下水埋深小于15 m）的区域面积也在逐年减小，其中地下水埋深小于10 m的面积减小幅度较大。
기우20112012년관측수거，응용Feflow연건，구건료민근록주지구적잠수승압수삼유수치모형。응용해모형대연구구미래5～10 a내지하수위동태변화진행료예측。결과표명：목전용수조건하，경과일계렬종합조시，지하수위하강추세득도유효알제；단재미래5～10 a내，민근지하수위의연정체이저폭도지속하강。상유패구적지하수루두일익확대，하유호구지하수루두인청토호생태설수이득도유효회복，단수착지하수매심일익증대，하유홍사량구역출현료신적지하수루두。령외，당지부합식물존활조건（지하수매심소우15 m）적구역면적야재축년감소，기중지하수매심소우10 m적면적감소폭도교대。
Based on the latest water-level data in 2011 and 2012,a groundwater numerical model including unconfined aquifer and confined aquifer for Minqin oasis was established with Feflow software,which can simulate the regional groundwater changes under transient conditions. The numerical model was used to predict future changes in groundwater level in the next five years to ten years. The result indicates that a series of comprehensive measures have curbed the trend of drawdown of groundwater level effectively under current water resources management conditions. But in the next 5 to 10 years,groundwater levels in the Minqin oasis will be in a continuous drawdown trend with low rate. The current groundwater funnel areas in the upstream district expand,but those distributions in the downstream district shrinks on account of the complement of water form Qingtu Lake. But as groundwater depth in the study area increases,a new groundwater funnel turns up in Hongshaliang village. In addition,the local plant cannot survive until the groundwater depth is less than 15 meters. The percentage of the area where groundwater depth is less than 15 decreases year by year and area in which groundwater depth is less than 10 meters is shrinkage on a large scale.