CAJ | 학술논문

利用我国30个省市2003—2012年的数据，构建城镇化、产业结构综合评价指标体系且通过主成分分析完成测算，在此基础上构建PVAR模型实证分析了我国城镇化建设和产业结构升级之间的互动关系，并测算协同度指标刻画产、城之间的协调发展情况。结果表明：产业结构升级在短期内能在一定的程度上促进城镇化建设，而这个促进作用将在中长期有所提高并趋于稳定；城镇化建设在中长期将会反过来推动产业结构的升级，产生“反哺”效应，最终形成良性互动循环；良好的协同关系是产、城良性互动的必备前提。
이용아국30개성시2003—2012년적수거，구건성진화、산업결구종합평개지표체계차통과주성분분석완성측산，재차기출상구건PVAR모형실증분석료아국성진화건설화산업결구승급지간적호동관계，병측산협동도지표각화산、성지간적협조발전정황。결과표명：산업결구승급재단기내능재일정적정도상촉진성진화건설，이저개촉진작용장재중장기유소제고병추우은정；성진화건설재중장기장회반과래추동산업결구적승급，산생“반포”효응，최종형성량성호동순배；량호적협동관계시산、성량성호동적필비전제。
The coordinated relationship between urbanization construction and industrial structure upgrade is ana-lyzed by using the panel data of 30 regions of China during the period of 2003 to 2012 to construct a PVAR model, and a comprehensive evaluation index system is built about urbanization construction and industrial structure up-grade,all the values in this system are measured by principal component analysis. And then the synergy degree be-tween urbanization construction and industrial structure upgrade is calculated. The results indicate that industrial structure upgrade can promote the urbanization construction to a certain extent in the short term,this promotion will increase and stabilize in the medium and long term. In turn,the urbanization construction will push the industrial structure upgrade in the medium and long term,and this“feedback”effect will finally form a virtuous cycle. A good cooperative relationship is the necessary premise of the benign interaction between the industrial structure upgrade and urbanization construction.