CAJ | 학술논문

应用ECWMF和栽639L60（2.5×2.5）数值预报资料，检验2009—2012年新疆冬季43场暴雪天气过程的主要影响系统（西西伯利亚低槽、乌拉尔大槽、北方横槽、中亚低值系统）预报能力，检验72 h内逐24 h 500 hPa位势高度场和海平面气压场，结果表明：两种模式对于500 hPa形势场预报都比较好，48 h之内ECWMF的准确率略高于T639；海平面气压场两种模式的预报准确率均低于500 hPa位势高度场，T639要优于ECWMF，海平面气压中心强度的预报值较实况偏小3~5 hPa。
응용ECWMF화재639L60（2.5×2.5）수치예보자료，검험2009—2012년신강동계43장폭설천기과정적주요영향계통（서서백리아저조、오랍이대조、북방횡조、중아저치계통）예보능력，검험72 h내축24 h 500 hPa위세고도장화해평면기압장，결과표명：량충모식대우500 hPa형세장예보도비교호，48 h지내ECWMF적준학솔략고우T639；해평면기압장량충모식적예보준학솔균저우500 hPa위세고도장，T639요우우ECWMF，해평면기압중심강도적예보치교실황편소3~5 hPa。
In the study forecast data of ECWMF and T639L60 numerical forecast products (2.5í2.5)were used to test the forecasting ability for the main impact system of the 43 winter snowstorm processes in the years from 2009 to 2012,which is West Siberian trough, Ural Alexander slot, the northern cross slot, central Asia low-value systems, and the 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure field by 24 hours within 72 hours. The test result shows that these two models are both good at 500 hPa high altitude field situation forecast, and the accuracy of ECWMF is slightly higher than that of T639 within 48 hours; the two models accuracies for the surface pressure are both lower than those of 500 hPa geopotential height forecast, and T639 is superior to that of ECWMF; meanwhile, the strength of surface pressure center in forecasting is lower 3~5 hPa than the live situation.