CAJ | 학술논문

根据导线覆冰表面热平衡方程分析内外部融冰因素对导线冰载荷的影响，计及地形对冰载荷的影响以及覆冰引起导线等效半径增大对风载荷的影响，通过气象实测的降雨量、风速、风向、温度等信息以及电网运行信息、当前监测覆冰厚度等信息建立输电线覆冰厚度增长预测模型。从输电线路覆冰过载机理出发，构建覆冰故障概率计算框架，从力学角度分析覆冰厚度及风速对输电线路的共同作用，采用反映金属承载极限特性的指数模型计算输电线路故障概率。以实际线路为例验证了该模型计算得到的线路覆冰故障概率变化趋势与实际故障情况相符，能够充分验证覆冰故障率与实际天气的相关性。
근거도선복빙표면열평형방정분석내외부융빙인소대도선빙재하적영향，계급지형대빙재하적영향이급복빙인기도선등효반경증대대풍재하적영향，통과기상실측적강우량、풍속、풍향、온도등신식이급전망운행신식、당전감측복빙후도등신식건립수전선복빙후도증장예측모형。종수전선로복빙과재궤리출발，구건복빙고장개솔계산광가，종역학각도분석복빙후도급풍속대수전선로적공동작용，채용반영금속승재겁한특성적지수모형계산수전선로고장개솔。이실제선로위례험증료해모형계산득도적선로복빙고장개솔변화추세여실제고장정황상부，능구충분험증복빙고장솔여실제천기적상관성。
The impacts of internal and external ice melting factors on ice load are analyzed according to heat balance equation of ice surface, and then the landform factor and the increased equivalent radius of iced line are taken into account for ice load and wind load calculation. The measured meteorological data such as rainfall, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, the power grid operation information, and the monitoring ice thickness information are used to establish the icing-thickness growth forecasting model of transmission line. The framework of icing fault probability calculation is formed via the icing overload mechanism of transmission line. The combined influence of icing-thickness and wind speed on transmission lines is analyzed from the standpoint of mechanics, and the fault probability of transmission line is achieved using exponential model that reflects metal bearing limit characteristic. The actual example verifies that the calculated icing fault probability of transmission lines is consistent with the actual fault trend, and the model can fully verify the correlation between icing fault probability and the actual weather condition.