CAJ | 학술논문

接触电阻是表征触点接触性能的一个重要指标。对监测得到的接触电阻时间序列进行混沌特性识别与预测。运用 Cao 氏法确定了接触电阻时间序列的最小嵌入维数，通过绘制其相轨线图和计算最大 Lyapunov 指数，从定性和定量两个角度分别验证了接触电阻时间序列具有混沌特性。最后基于最大Lyapunov指数方法对接触电阻时间序列部分数据进行了短期预测，并给出了混沌预测的尺度。结果表明，在可预测尺度内，预测效果较好且比较稳定，超出可预测尺度范围后，预测误差变大且不稳定。
접촉전조시표정촉점접촉성능적일개중요지표。대감측득도적접촉전조시간서렬진행혼돈특성식별여예측。운용 Cao 씨법학정료접촉전조시간서렬적최소감입유수，통과회제기상궤선도화계산최대 Lyapunov 지수，종정성화정량량개각도분별험증료접촉전조시간서렬구유혼돈특성。최후기우최대Lyapunov지수방법대접촉전조시간서렬부분수거진행료단기예측，병급출료혼돈예측적척도。결과표명，재가예측척도내，예측효과교호차비교은정，초출가예측척도범위후，예측오차변대차불은정。
Contact resistance is an important index for characterization of contact performance. The chaotic characteristics of contact resistance time series for the detected contacts are identified and predicted. The minimum embedding dimension of contact resistance time series is determined by Cao method. It proves that the contact resistance time series has the chaos characteristics by drawing phase diagram method and calculating largest Lyapunov exponent from qualitative and quantitative view respectively. The chaos prediction and the reliable scope for partial data of contact resistance time series are presented based on the Largest Lyapunov exponent. The result indicates that the prediction accuracy is higher and steadier within the predictable range than beyond of it.