CAJ | 학술논문

基于乌鲁木齐近60年的气温、降水资料，运用Mann－Kendall和线性回归检验对气候变量序列进行了趋势和极值分析。结果表明，平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温表现出增加趋势且以秋冬季的增温幅度最大。气温日较差在所有时间步长内都是缩小的，其主要原因是平均最低气温的升温幅度比最高气温大，降水量总体上增加，季节降水中以冬季增加最为明显。从气候极值变化方面看，与异常偏冷相关的极端事件如霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷昼日数、冷日持续指数显著减少减弱；与异常偏暖相关的暖夜日数、暖昼日数则明显增多增强；降水强度、强降水量增加明显，持续干旱有所下降。
기우오로목제근60년적기온、강수자료，운용Mann－Kendall화선성회귀검험대기후변량서렬진행료추세화겁치분석。결과표명，평균기온、평균최고기온、평균최저기온표현출증가추세차이추동계적증온폭도최대。기온일교차재소유시간보장내도시축소적，기주요원인시평균최저기온적승온폭도비최고기온대，강수량총체상증가，계절강수중이동계증가최위명현。종기후겁치변화방면간，여이상편랭상관적겁단사건여상동일수、랭야일수、랭주일수、랭일지속지수현저감소감약；여이상편난상관적난야일수、난주일수칙명현증다증강；강수강도、강강수량증가명현，지속간한유소하강。
Abstar ct:There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes especially from developing countries.We reported the results of analysis of daily temperature( maximum and minimum) and precipitation data form Uru-mqi.Data were subject to quality control and processing into indices of climate extremes for release to the global community. Based on the temperature and precipitation data over the last 60 years,this paper analyzed trends and climate extremes using Mann-Keandall and linear regression test.The results showed that mean temperature,maximum mean temperature,minimum mean temperature indicated an increasing trend while the warming amplitudes in the autumn and winter was the largest.The main reason of the reduced diurnal temperature range in all time steps was that minimum mean temperature had a larger in-creasing temperature range than maximum mean temperature.Overall,precipitation appeared to be increased and it emerged the most obvious increasing in winter.Both temperature and precipitation in different months had different trends,but the most sig-nificant change was basically happened in January and February.The extremes ralated to low temperature such as frost days, cool nights,cool days,cold spell duration indicator,have been obviously decreased in frequency and intensity,and the extrenes ralated to high temperature such as warm nights,warm days,have been mostly increased in frequency and intensity.The simple daily intensity index and very wet day have witnessed significant upward trend and consecutive dry day have gradually drop weakened.