CAJ | 학술논문

提文章利用美国宾州州立大学的WRF-EnKF（Ensemble Kalman Filter）实时预报系统（Real-time Penn State WRF-En-KF System），针对2013年5月15—16日发生在中国南方的暴雨过程进行了数值预报试验，以初步检验该系统对我国南方降水确定性预报的效果。数值试验采用2013年5月14日08时（北京时）起报的6 h间隔的1°×1°NCEP GFS （globle forecast system）60 h预报数据（预报到5月16日20时）作为初始条件和边界条件。其中，控制试验不同化任何观测资料，同化试验通过集合卡尔曼滤波方法同化常规探空资料，分别进行确定性预报。结果表明：利用 WRF-EnKF系统同化常规探空资料，显著改善了数值预报的初始场，减小了各物理量的预报偏差和预报均方根误差，进而提高了此次暴雨过程的降水落区和强度的预报准确率。
제문장이용미국빈주주립대학적WRF-EnKF（Ensemble Kalman Filter）실시예보계통（Real-time Penn State WRF-En-KF System），침대2013년5월15—16일발생재중국남방적폭우과정진행료수치예보시험，이초보검험해계통대아국남방강수학정성예보적효과。수치시험채용2013년5월14일08시（북경시）기보적6 h간격적1°×1°NCEP GFS （globle forecast system）60 h예보수거（예보도5월16일20시）작위초시조건화변계조건。기중，공제시험불동화임하관측자료，동화시험통과집합잡이만려파방법동화상규탐공자료，분별진행학정성예보。결과표명：이용 WRF-EnKF계통동화상규탐공자료，현저개선료수치예보적초시장，감소료각물리량적예보편차화예보균방근오차，진이제고료차차폭우과정적강수락구화강도적예보준학솔。
Two convection-permitting numerical experiments were conducted with the WRF model to exam-ine the impact of assimilating sounding data by using an EnKF method for deterministic prediction of a tor-rential rainfall event over southern China during 15-16 May 2013.The initial and lateral boundary condi-tions were based on the NCEP GFS 1°×1°60 h gridded forecast data which were available every 6 h from 08:00 BT 14 May to 20:00 BT 16 May 2013.The two experiments,NODA and DA,differed only in the initial conditions:while NODA was initialized from the NCEP GFS data at 08:00 BT 14 May,DA was from an ensemble mean of 30 analysis-members at 08:00 BT 15 May,which was generated using the WRF-EnKF system with conventional sounding data at 20:00 BT 14 May,02:00 BT and 08:00 BT 15 May as-similated.The results show that,compared to NODA,not only the initial conditions of DA are much clos-er to the observed fields,but also the DA predicted physical parameters are improved in terms of both bia-ses and root-mean-square errors,leading to a more accurate prediction of the location and magnitude of precipitation from DA.