CAJ | 학술논문

水平定向钻穿越施工是管道穿越工程的一种主要施工形式，在施工中由于地质条件、设备使用和穿越工艺选择等原因使其存在风险，因此有必要对其失效可能性进行研究。建立了包含“人、机、料、法、环”五方面的水平定向钻施工失效可能性指标评价体系，对于特征影响因素，如扩径比、管土摩擦系数等，运用回拖过程的力学分析得出其分布规律，用模糊化的方法将底层指标分值转化为先验概率，再代入贝叶斯网络进行概率推理，最终确定其失效可能性。以某管道工程采取水平定向钻穿越河流为例，得出其失效可能性等级为“较高”，最后提出了相应的控制措施。运用贝叶斯网络研究水平定向钻穿越施工的失效可能性具有重要的工程应用价值和现实意义。
수평정향찬천월시공시관도천월공정적일충주요시공형식，재시공중유우지질조건、설비사용화천월공예선택등원인사기존재풍험，인차유필요대기실효가능성진행연구。건립료포함“인、궤、료、법、배”오방면적수평정향찬시공실효가능성지표평개체계，대우특정영향인소，여확경비、관토마찰계수등，운용회타과정적역학분석득출기분포규률，용모호화적방법장저층지표분치전화위선험개솔，재대입패협사망락진행개솔추리，최종학정기실효가능성。이모관도공정채취수평정향찬천월하류위례，득출기실효가능성등급위“교고”，최후제출료상응적공제조시。운용패협사망락연구수평정향찬천월시공적실효가능성구유중요적공정응용개치화현실의의。
The crossing construction by horizontal directional drilling is a main method of pipeline crossing engi -neering , and there exists risk in construction process due to the geological conditions , the use of equipment and the selection of crossing technology , so it is necessary to evaluate the failure possibility .The index evaluation system on failure possibility of crossing construction by horizontal directional drilling was established , including five aspects like man, machine, material, method and environment.The distribution rules of characteristic influencing factors , such as borehole-pipeline diameter ratio , friction coefficient of pipeline and soil , and so on , were obtained by me-chanical analysis on back dragging process .The scores of bottom indexes were transformed into prior probability through a fuzzy method , and probabilistic reasoning of them was conducted in Bayesian network , so as to determine the failure possibility .Taking an pipeline engineering which adopted horizontal directional drilling for crossing river as example , the grade of failure possibility was figured out to be relatively high , and the relevant controlling meas-ures were put forward .It has important engineering application value and practical significance for studying failure possibility of crossing construction by horizontal directional drilling through Bayesian network .