CAJ | 학술논문

为了确定黑河干流中游地区适宜绿洲及耕地规模，利用黑河干流中游地区1954－2012年水文气象资料及黑河流域2000年和2011年土地利用数据，采用水热平衡原理建立适宜绿洲规模计算模型，并在模型中考虑林地和草地的腾发量计算不同来水情景下适宜绿洲规模；根据分带理论建立适宜耕地规模模型，计算不同来水情景下绿洲适宜耕地规模。基于GIS建立黑河干流中游土地利用马尔科夫链模型，并利用此模型预测2015年和2020年黑河干流中游地区绿洲规模和耕地规模的变化，并对未来绿洲发展的适宜性进行评价。结果表明：黑河干流中游地区地表径流存在丰枯变化；在丰水年、平水年和枯水年的适宜绿洲规模分别为3245～4868、2635～3953和2422～3633 km2；相应的适宜耕地规模分别为2337、2004和1878 km2；现状年2011年为丰水年，实际绿洲规模和耕地规模分别为4035和2366 km2，现状绿洲规模适宜性指数为0.6；预测2015年绿洲规模和耕地规模分别扩张到4155和2527 km2，绿洲规模适宜性指数下降到0.44～0.59；2020年绿洲和耕地规模扩张到4304和2719 km2，规模适宜性指数比2015年下降0.02～0.03，2011年、2015年、2020年的耕地规模都高于绿洲适宜耕地规模。干旱地区适宜绿洲规模及耕地规模研究为区域水资源可持续利用提供依据。
위료학정흑하간류중유지구괄의록주급경지규모，이용흑하간류중유지구1954－2012년수문기상자료급흑하류역2000년화2011년토지이용수거，채용수열평형원리건립괄의록주규모계산모형，병재모형중고필임지화초지적등발량계산불동래수정경하괄의록주규모；근거분대이론건립괄의경지규모모형，계산불동래수정경하록주괄의경지규모。기우GIS건립흑하간류중유토지이용마이과부련모형，병이용차모형예측2015년화2020년흑하간류중유지구록주규모화경지규모적변화，병대미래록주발전적괄의성진행평개。결과표명：흑하간류중유지구지표경류존재봉고변화；재봉수년、평수년화고수년적괄의록주규모분별위3245～4868、2635～3953화2422～3633 km2；상응적괄의경지규모분별위2337、2004화1878 km2；현상년2011년위봉수년，실제록주규모화경지규모분별위4035화2366 km2，현상록주규모괄의성지수위0.6；예측2015년록주규모화경지규모분별확장도4155화2527 km2，록주규모괄의성지수하강도0.44～0.59；2020년록주화경지규모확장도4304화2719 km2，규모괄의성지수비2015년하강0.02～0.03，2011년、2015년、2020년적경지규모도고우록주괄의경지규모。간한지구괄의록주규모급경지규모연구위구역수자원가지속이용제공의거。
The middle reaches of Heihe River are the essence parts of Heihe River, and its stability is directly related to the sustainable development of economy, society and ecology in this basin. But excessive use of water and soil resources caused by population increase and economic development since the 1960s, has led to ecological environment deterioration and decrease of runoff flowing into lower reaches. In order to relieve water shortage and use water resources efficiently, the State Council approved plan of Water Reallocation of the Heihe River in 1997 to stipulate the water discharging of Zhengyi gorge. Under the stipulation, the flow coming from Yingluo gorge are under different assurance probabilities. As such, how to develop appropriate oasis scale using the limited water resources has become one of the important research subjects of sustainable development in the middle reaches of Heihe river. The research of suitable scale for oasis and cultivated land in arid region can provide the theoretical and technical guidance for sustainable utilization of regional water resources. Choosing Heihe river basin as the study area, hydro-meteorological data during 1954-2012 and land-use/cover data in 2000 and 2011 were used to analyze the variations of high and low flow for surface runoff in the middle reaches of Heihe River. A suitable oasis scale computation model was built based on water-heat balance, which included calculation of evapotranspiration of forest and grassland. According to Egyptian scholar M.M.Abd EI-Ghani’s theory, the oasis was divided into three zones based on classification of vegetation. A suitable cultivated land scale was adopted and it combined with the suitable oasis model was used to calculate proportion of cultivated land in oasis. Combining the Markov chain based on GIS with suitable oasis scale model, using land use/cover data to calculate Markovian transition matrix, and then to calculate annual transition probability. Based on land use/cover data in 2011 and annual transition probability, oasis scale in 2015 and 2020 was predicted, and its suitability was evaluated. Results showed that the runoff in middle reach of Heihe river changed during the studied time period. The suitable oasis scale was 3 245-4 868, 2 635-3 953 and 2 422-3 633 km2 in high flow, normal flow and low flow years, respectively. The suitable cultivated land scale was 2 337, 2 004, 1 878 km2 accordingly. For the high flow year in 2011, scale of oasis and cultivated land were 4 035 and 2 366 km2. It was showed that when the cultivated land area exceeded the suitable scale, and the suitable scale of oasis and cultivated land in 2015 would expand to 4 155 and 2 527 km2, respectively. Although suitability index of oasis scale declined to 0.44-0.59, the suitable scale of oasis and cultivated land in year 2020 would expand to 4 304 and 2 719 km2, respectively. When the suitability index of oasis scale decreased 0.02-0.03 from the level in 2015, the scale of cultivated land area exceeded the suitable scale Suitable oasis scale is not only related to available agricultural water resources, also has close relationship with the oasis agriculture water saving level, future research should further consider the influence of water saving level on oasis scale.