CAJ | 학술논문

利用第五次耦合模式比较计划(coupled model intercomparison project phase 5,简称CMIP5)中的月平均资料,基于合成分析、相关分析等现代气象统计方法,对热带太平洋、印度洋和大西洋年平均海温增暖不均匀特征及其成因进行分析。9个海洋模式集合的平均结果表明：在全球增暖背景下,3个热带大洋的海温增暖均表现出不均匀性,且增暖原因存在较大差异。热带太平洋赤道及其以北地区以海洋动力作用为主,赤道以南地区则以大气热力作用为主,而且海水上翻/下沉运动对海温增暖的作用在东、西太平洋之间存在明显差异；热带印度洋大面积海域的海温变化难以通过海气热通量交换来解释,海水上翻/下沉运动与温度平流对海温增暖的作用比较一致(二者同时利于海温增暖)；热带大西洋赤道附近地区的海温增暖是表层温度平流和上翻/下沉运动共同作用的结果,赤道以北的大西洋海温变化则以温度平流的作用为主,而赤道以南的大西洋海温的变化主要是海水上翻/下沉作用引起的。
이용제오차우합모식비교계화(coupled model intercomparison project phase 5,간칭CMIP5)중적월평균자료,기우합성분석、상관분석등현대기상통계방법,대열대태평양、인도양화대서양년평균해온증난불균균특정급기성인진행분석。9개해양모식집합적평균결과표명：재전구증난배경하,3개열대대양적해온증난균표현출불균균성,차증난원인존재교대차이。열대태평양적도급기이북지구이해양동력작용위주,적도이남지구칙이대기열력작용위주,이차해수상번/하침운동대해온증난적작용재동、서태평양지간존재명현차이；열대인도양대면적해역적해온변화난이통과해기열통량교환래해석,해수상번/하침운동여온도평류대해온증난적작용비교일치(이자동시리우해온증난)；열대대서양적도부근지구적해온증난시표층온도평류화상번/하침운동공동작용적결과,적도이북적대서양해온변화칙이온도평류적작용위주,이적도이남적대서양해온적변화주요시해수상번/하침작용인기적。
Using the global monthly mean datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the characteristics of non-uniform sea surface temperature warming over the tropical Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans and its causes are analyzed. We use various meteorological statistical methods, such as synthetic analysis and correlation analysis. Multi-model results show that annual mean spatial distributions of the variation in SST exhibit non-uniform patterns over the three tropical oceans under global warming. However, the causes responsible for these non-uniform patterns are quite different. The oceanic dynamic processes play a leading role in the equator and over the area north of the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean, while the atmospheric thermal effect becomes more important over the area south of the equator. In addition, the oceanic upwelling/downwelling processes play different roles in the eastern and western tropical Pacific. For most part of the tropical Indian Ocean, variation in sea surface temperature is not well explained by the air-sea heat fluxes and oceanic dynamics such as upwelling/downwelling, and temperature advection also plays an important role. For the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the SST variability in the area near the equator mainly results from oceanic dynamics such as temperature advection and upwelling/downwelling. Temperature advection plays a leading role in the variation of sea surface temperature north of the equator, while upwelling/downwelling plays a dominant role south of the equator.