水利学报
水利學報
수리학보
2015年
5期
551-557
,共7页
金菊良%崔毅%杨齐祺%吴成国%潘争伟
金菊良%崔毅%楊齊祺%吳成國%潘爭偉
금국량%최의%양제기%오성국%반쟁위
用水总量%用水结构%动态关系分析%向量自回归模型%方差分解%山东省
用水總量%用水結構%動態關繫分析%嚮量自迴歸模型%方差分解%山東省
용수총량%용수결구%동태관계분석%향량자회귀모형%방차분해%산동성
total water consumption%water utilization structure%dynamic relationship analysis%vector au-to-regression model%variance decomposition%Shandong Province
区域产业用水总量与用水结构的变动响应关系分析，是落实最严格水资源管理制度、制定产业结构与用水结构调控方案的关键。以山东省1995—2012年用水总量、用水结构及经济发展数据为基础，采用向量自回归模型，通过方差分解及脉冲响应分析，探讨了山东省历史年份产业用水总量与用水结构变动之间的响应关系。结果表明：影响山东省用水总量变化的主要因素依次为前一期用水总量、农业用水比重、工业用水比重和生活用水比重；山东省用水总量与生活用水比重间呈负向响应关系，农业用水比重比工业用水比重的正向影响大。通过降低农业用水比重、适当增加生活用水比重和控制工业用水比重的调整措施，可进一步转变和优化山东省用水结构方式，使山东省用水结构向合理均衡的方向发展。
區域產業用水總量與用水結構的變動響應關繫分析，是落實最嚴格水資源管理製度、製定產業結構與用水結構調控方案的關鍵。以山東省1995—2012年用水總量、用水結構及經濟髮展數據為基礎，採用嚮量自迴歸模型，通過方差分解及脈遲響應分析，探討瞭山東省歷史年份產業用水總量與用水結構變動之間的響應關繫。結果錶明：影響山東省用水總量變化的主要因素依次為前一期用水總量、農業用水比重、工業用水比重和生活用水比重；山東省用水總量與生活用水比重間呈負嚮響應關繫，農業用水比重比工業用水比重的正嚮影響大。通過降低農業用水比重、適噹增加生活用水比重和控製工業用水比重的調整措施，可進一步轉變和優化山東省用水結構方式，使山東省用水結構嚮閤理均衡的方嚮髮展。
구역산업용수총량여용수결구적변동향응관계분석，시락실최엄격수자원관리제도、제정산업결구여용수결구조공방안적관건。이산동성1995—2012년용수총량、용수결구급경제발전수거위기출，채용향량자회귀모형，통과방차분해급맥충향응분석，탐토료산동성역사년빈산업용수총량여용수결구변동지간적향응관계。결과표명：영향산동성용수총량변화적주요인소의차위전일기용수총량、농업용수비중、공업용수비중화생활용수비중；산동성용수총량여생활용수비중간정부향향응관계，농업용수비중비공업용수비중적정향영향대。통과강저농업용수비중、괄당증가생활용수비중화공제공업용수비중적조정조시，가진일보전변화우화산동성용수결구방식，사산동성용수결구향합리균형적방향발전。
Dynamic relationship analysis between regional industrial total water consumption and water utili?zation structure is the key for the strictest water resource management system and regulating industrial and water utilization structures. Based on total water consumption,water utilization structure and economic devel?opment of Shandong Province from 1995 to 2012, this study adopted the vector auto-regression (VAR) model, then revealed the dynamic relationship between industrial total water consumption and water utiliza?tion structure for Shandong Province through variance decomposition and impulse response function. Results showed that the sequence of impact factors on total water consumption of Shandong Province was total wa?ter consumption of past one period, the proportion of agricultural water, industrial water and domestic wa?ter, and also revealed the negative response relationship between total water consumption and the propor?tion of domestic water, while the positive influence of the proportion of agricultural water was greater than industrial water. Therefore the water utilization structure in Shandong Province could be further transformed and optimized by means of decreasing the proportion of agricultural water, meanwhile increasing domestic water and properly controlling industrial water. This study will enrich the theory and practice research of the interaction between regional economic development and supply and demand of water, which would pro?vide scientific and reasonable decision basis for proposing schemes of regional water resources planning and social development.
