水利学报
水利學報
수리학보
2015年
5期
543-550
,共8页
刘章君%郭生练%李天元%胡瑶%李立平
劉章君%郭生練%李天元%鬍瑤%李立平
류장군%곽생련%리천원%호요%리립평
设计洪水%地区组成%区间估计%Copula函数%联合概率密度%清江流域
設計洪水%地區組成%區間估計%Copula函數%聯閤概率密度%清江流域
설계홍수%지구조성%구간고계%Copula함수%연합개솔밀도%청강류역
design flood%region composition%interval estimation%Copula function%joint probability densi-ty%Qingjiang basin
目前设计洪水地区组成计算方法都是以特定的地区组成情况来概括所有可能出现各种洪水组合,缺乏理论基础,计算结果差异较大,误差很难评估。本文采用各分区洪水的联合概率密度函数值度量地区组成发生的相对可能性,基于Copula函数推导得到分区洪水归一化的概率密度函数,提出了设计洪水地区组成的区间估计方法。清江流域隔河岩水库的应用实例表明:典型年法的计算结果不在95%置信区间内;同频率地区组成法位于该置信区间内,具有一定的合理性。所提方法具有较强的统计理论基础,不仅可以计算地区组成的各种点估计值,而且能够对估计的不确定性进行定量评价。
目前設計洪水地區組成計算方法都是以特定的地區組成情況來概括所有可能齣現各種洪水組閤,缺乏理論基礎,計算結果差異較大,誤差很難評估。本文採用各分區洪水的聯閤概率密度函數值度量地區組成髮生的相對可能性,基于Copula函數推導得到分區洪水歸一化的概率密度函數,提齣瞭設計洪水地區組成的區間估計方法。清江流域隔河巖水庫的應用實例錶明:典型年法的計算結果不在95%置信區間內;同頻率地區組成法位于該置信區間內,具有一定的閤理性。所提方法具有較彊的統計理論基礎,不僅可以計算地區組成的各種點估計值,而且能夠對估計的不確定性進行定量評價。
목전설계홍수지구조성계산방법도시이특정적지구조성정황래개괄소유가능출현각충홍수조합,결핍이론기출,계산결과차이교대,오차흔난평고。본문채용각분구홍수적연합개솔밀도함수치도량지구조성발생적상대가능성,기우Copula함수추도득도분구홍수귀일화적개솔밀도함수,제출료설계홍수지구조성적구간고계방법。청강류역격하암수고적응용실례표명:전형년법적계산결과불재95%치신구간내;동빈솔지구조성법위우해치신구간내,구유일정적합이성。소제방법구유교강적통계이론기출,불부가이계산지구조성적각충점고계치,이차능구대고계적불학정성진행정량평개。
The current methods for design flood region composition use some specific situations to summa?rize all possible combination of the flood at each sub-watershed,which leads to the results lacking in theo?retical basis,showing huge difference and hard to assess the errors. In this study,the joint probability den?sity function value of flood volume at each sub-watershed was adopted to measure its occurrence likelihood. Based on Copula function the normalized probability density function of flood volume at sub-watershed was derived. A new methodology for interval estimation of design flood region composition was proposed. The Ge?heyan reservoir located at Qingjiang basin was selected as a case study. It is demonstrated that the results of typical year method are not within the range of peak discharges estimated by the 95 % confidence inter?vals, and the results of equivalent frequency regional composition method are within those intervals which indicates that it has some rationality. The proposed method has strong statistical basis and can not only give both point and interval estimates of design flood region composition, but also evaluate the uncertainty of estimate quantitatively, which will provide a new approach for design flood region composition analysis and calculation.