CAJ | 학술논문

为协调城市发展与生态环境保护和土地资源可持续利用之间的关系，从经济承载力、社会承载力和生态环境承载力三方面构建西安市土地综合承载力评价指标体系，结合西安市的发展目标和发展中的制约因素，采用均方差决策法和线性回归模型对西安市土地综合承载力的现状及可持续利用进行预测和评价．研究结果显示，西安市2001～2012年土地综合承载力总体上呈现低开高走的上升趋势，2012年西安市土地综合承载力处于较高水平．根据预测，至2025年西安市的土地综合承载力最终将达到2．5830，而社会承载力和生态环境承载力发展则较为缓慢．
위협조성시발전여생태배경보호화토지자원가지속이용지간적관계，종경제승재력、사회승재력화생태배경승재력삼방면구건서안시토지종합승재력평개지표체계，결합서안시적발전목표화발전중적제약인소，채용균방차결책법화선성회귀모형대서안시토지종합승재력적현상급가지속이용진행예측화평개．연구결과현시，서안시2001～2012년토지종합승재력총체상정현저개고주적상승추세，2012년서안시토지종합승재력처우교고수평．근거예측，지2025년서안시적토지종합승재력최종장체도2．5830，이사회승재력화생태배경승재력발전칙교위완만．
In order to coordinate the relationship between urban development and environmental protection and the sustainable use of land resources ,an evaluating index system of land comprehensive carrying capacity in Xi ’ an city ,involving economic carrying capacity ,social carrying capacity ,and ecological carrying capacity ,was established .Combined with the development goals and constraint factors the method of mean-squared deviation weight decision and the linear regression model were adopted to predict and evaluate the status and sustainable utilization of land comprehensive carrying capacity in Xi ’ an City .As the results indicated ,the index of land comprehensive carrying capacity in Xi ’an shows an overall upward trend with a low starting point from 2001 to 2012 .The index of land comprehensive carrying capacity was at a high level in 2012 .Up to 2025 ,the expected index of land comprehensive carrying capacity in Xi’an will eventually reach 2 .5830 ,while the social and ecological carrying capacity will grow slowly .