CAJ | 학술논문

根据钓鱼岛海域海监巡航执法保障预报、重点海洋安全保障目标精细化预报等海浪业务化预报工作的新需求，基于WRF海面风场预报模型，利用结构网格海浪模型WaveWatchⅢ和非结构网格海浪模型SWAN （Simulating Waves Nearshore）的嵌套计算，建立一套适用于东海区和上海近海的海浪数值预报系统。通过不同数值实验，证明此系统的稳定性和时效性。利用观测数据对连续2个月的有效波高值的预报结果进行检验，结果表明：24小时预报平均绝对误差在0.3 m以下；48小时预报平均绝对误差在0.5 m以下；72小时预报平均绝对误差在0.7 m以下，且误差极值主要是由台风过程引起，但预报趋势仍值得参考。对2次台风过程采用不同风场源数据进行对比试验，结果显示采用实况路径的后报风场，海浪预报精度明显改善。对于近岸区域采用嵌套计算的SWAN模型预报结果比WaveWatch III模型预报结果精度显著提高，证明建立的海浪数值预报系统在满足“稳定性”和“时效性”的基础上，各尺度和分辨率的预报产品“准确性”也能得到保证。
근거조어도해역해감순항집법보장예보、중점해양안전보장목표정세화예보등해랑업무화예보공작적신수구，기우WRF해면풍장예보모형，이용결구망격해랑모형WaveWatchⅢ화비결구망격해랑모형SWAN （Simulating Waves Nearshore）적감투계산，건립일투괄용우동해구화상해근해적해랑수치예보계통。통과불동수치실험，증명차계통적은정성화시효성。이용관측수거대련속2개월적유효파고치적예보결과진행검험，결과표명：24소시예보평균절대오차재0.3 m이하；48소시예보평균절대오차재0.5 m이하；72소시예보평균절대오차재0.7 m이하，차오차겁치주요시유태풍과정인기，단예보추세잉치득삼고。대2차태풍과정채용불동풍장원수거진행대비시험，결과현시채용실황로경적후보풍장，해랑예보정도명현개선。대우근안구역채용감투계산적SWAN모형예보결과비WaveWatch III모형예보결과정도현저제고，증명건립적해랑수치예보계통재만족“은정성”화“시효성”적기출상，각척도화분변솔적예보산품“준학성”야능득도보증。
By using the structured grid wave model WaveWatchⅢand unstructured grid wave model SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore), an operational wave forecast model system was developed to meet the increasing need of high-accuracy wave forecasting for Diaoyu Dao and other key ocean engineerings. The operational wave forecast system was applicable for Shanghai coastal zone and East China Sea. Various numerical experiments were adopted to test the system stability and efficiency. Comparison of forecasted significant wave height with 2 months' observational data showed that:24-hour average absolute error was smaller than 0.3 meters;48-hour average absolute error was smaller than 0.5 meters;72-hour average absolute error was about 0.7 meters;the extreme error was caused by typhoon,and the forecasted process trend was valuable. Two comparison numerical experiments were applied by using different kinds of forecast winds, and the results showed that wave forecasting accuracy was significantly improved by using real typhoon path, not by using forecasted typhoon path, and the nested WaveWatch III+SWAN model gave better results than WaveWatch III model in coastal areas did. Numerical experiments showed that the wave forecast model system could meet the need of stability and efficiency for operational models system.