CAJ | 학술논문

根据1951－2013年间的渤海冰情等级资料，利用最大熵谱分析、相关分析和合成分析等方法，研究了渤海冰情等级的年际和年代际变化特征，探讨了局地气候、大气环流、ENSO（El Nio-Southern Oscillation）和太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）对海冰的影响。结果表明，渤海海冰具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征，并在1972年前后发生了一次由重到轻的气候跃变，在跃变后冰情较跃变前平均降低了0．7级。相关分析与合成分析结果显示，渤海冰情的年际变化除受局地气候的影响外，还受西太平洋副热带高压（副高）、极涡和欧亚环流的共同调控，特别在1972年以后，秋季副高、冬季欧亚和亚洲纬向环流对渤海冰情的年际变化均有重要影响，可作为渤海海冰预报的重要因子，而春季 PDO、ENSO、冬季副高及欧亚和亚洲经向环流则是渤海冰情年代际变化的影响因素。
근거1951－2013년간적발해빙정등급자료，이용최대적보분석、상관분석화합성분석등방법，연구료발해빙정등급적년제화년대제변화특정，탐토료국지기후、대기배류、ENSO（El Nio-Southern Oscillation）화태평양년대제진탕（PDO）대해빙적영향。결과표명，발해해빙구유명현적년제화년대제변화특정，병재1972년전후발생료일차유중도경적기후약변，재약변후빙정교약변전평균강저료0．7급。상관분석여합성분석결과현시，발해빙정적년제변화제수국지기후적영향외，환수서태평양부열대고압（부고）、겁와화구아배류적공동조공，특별재1972년이후，추계부고、동계구아화아주위향배류대발해빙정적년제변화균유중요영향，가작위발해해빙예보적중요인자，이춘계 PDO、ENSO、동계부고급구아화아주경향배류칙시발해빙정년대제변화적영향인소。
Based on the sea ice grade data in the Bohai Sea during 1951 to 2013,the interannual and interdecadal vari-ations of sea ice in the Bohai Sea are studied using maximum-entropy spectrum analysis,correlation analysis and composite analysis methods.The effects of the local climate,atmospheric circulation,ENSO (El Nio-Southern Os-cillation)and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)on the sea ice are also discussed respectively.The results showed that sea ice had distinct interannual and interdecadal variations.Especially it jumped from heavy to light in 1972,and the sea ice grade dropped by 0.7 because of the climate jump.The correlation analysis and composite a-nalysis showed that the interannual variations of sea ice had close relationships with local climate,Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH),polar vortex and Eurasian circulation.WPSH in autumn,Eurasian and Asian zonal cir-culation in winter all had important effects on the interannual variations of sea ice,especially after 1972;these are key factors for Bohai Sea seaice forecasting.But the interdecadal variations of sea ice had close relationships with the PDO,ENSO in spring and Western Pacific Subtropical High in winter.