中国农业气象
中國農業氣象
중국농업기상
AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY
2015年
3期
364-371
,共8页
符号相关法%稻瘟病%发生潜势%气象预报模型%江西
符號相關法%稻瘟病%髮生潛勢%氣象預報模型%江西
부호상관법%도온병%발생잠세%기상예보모형%강서
Sign correlation%Rice blast%Occurrence potential%Meteorological forecasting model%Jiangxi province
基于1981－2010年江西省市(县)级稻瘟病监测资料和同期气象资料，利用符号相关法，分苗瘟、叶瘟、穗瘟分析各时期病害发生程度与气象因子的关系，并分别建立病害发生潜势气象预报模型。结果表明：与病害高峰同期的气象因子之间，早稻苗瘟与4月份的平均气温、雨量、日照时数呈正相关，与相对湿度呈负相关；早稻叶瘟与5月中旬－6月上旬的平均气温、雨量、日照时数呈负相关，与相对湿度呈正相关；早稻穗瘟与6月上旬－7月上旬的平均气温、日照时数呈负相关，与雨量、相对湿度呈正相关。晚稻苗瘟偏重发生的概率随着苗期高湿天数和雨日的增加而增大；晚稻叶瘟与8月中旬－9月上旬的平均气温、日照时数呈负相关，与雨量、相对湿度呈正相关；晚稻穗瘟与9月平均气温、相对湿度呈正相关，与雨量、日照时数呈负相关。通过相关关系和符号相同、相反的概率差值确定各气象因子距平值的量化值和权重系数，计算稻瘟病发生潜势气象指数，建立稻瘟病发生潜势气象预报模型。历史回代检验表明，模型准确率为60％~75％，且对偏重级别的准确率高于偏轻级别。
基于1981－2010年江西省市(縣)級稻瘟病鑑測資料和同期氣象資料，利用符號相關法，分苗瘟、葉瘟、穗瘟分析各時期病害髮生程度與氣象因子的關繫，併分彆建立病害髮生潛勢氣象預報模型。結果錶明：與病害高峰同期的氣象因子之間，早稻苗瘟與4月份的平均氣溫、雨量、日照時數呈正相關，與相對濕度呈負相關；早稻葉瘟與5月中旬－6月上旬的平均氣溫、雨量、日照時數呈負相關，與相對濕度呈正相關；早稻穗瘟與6月上旬－7月上旬的平均氣溫、日照時數呈負相關，與雨量、相對濕度呈正相關。晚稻苗瘟偏重髮生的概率隨著苗期高濕天數和雨日的增加而增大；晚稻葉瘟與8月中旬－9月上旬的平均氣溫、日照時數呈負相關，與雨量、相對濕度呈正相關；晚稻穗瘟與9月平均氣溫、相對濕度呈正相關，與雨量、日照時數呈負相關。通過相關關繫和符號相同、相反的概率差值確定各氣象因子距平值的量化值和權重繫數，計算稻瘟病髮生潛勢氣象指數，建立稻瘟病髮生潛勢氣象預報模型。歷史迴代檢驗錶明，模型準確率為60％~75％，且對偏重級彆的準確率高于偏輕級彆。
기우1981－2010년강서성시(현)급도온병감측자료화동기기상자료，이용부호상관법，분묘온、협온、수온분석각시기병해발생정도여기상인자적관계，병분별건립병해발생잠세기상예보모형。결과표명：여병해고봉동기적기상인자지간，조도묘온여4월빈적평균기온、우량、일조시수정정상관，여상대습도정부상관；조도협온여5월중순－6월상순적평균기온、우량、일조시수정부상관，여상대습도정정상관；조도수온여6월상순－7월상순적평균기온、일조시수정부상관，여우량、상대습도정정상관。만도묘온편중발생적개솔수착묘기고습천수화우일적증가이증대；만도협온여8월중순－9월상순적평균기온、일조시수정부상관，여우량、상대습도정정상관；만도수온여9월평균기온、상대습도정정상관，여우량、일조시수정부상관。통과상관관계화부호상동、상반적개솔차치학정각기상인자거평치적양화치화권중계수，계산도온병발생잠세기상지수，건립도온병발생잠세기상예보모형。역사회대검험표명，모형준학솔위60％~75％，차대편중급별적준학솔고우편경급별。
Based on rice blast monitoring data and observed meteorological data in Jiangxi province from 1981 to 2010, the relationship between rice blast degree and meteorological factors was analyzed and the meteorological forecasting model of rice blast occurrence was established in different stages, by using sign correlation method. The results showed that there was positive correlation between seedling blast of early rice and mean temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours in April, while negative correlation between that and air relative humidity. However, there was negative correlation between leaf blast of early rice and mean temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours from second ten days of May to the first ten days of June, while positive correlation between that and air relative humidity. There was negative correlation between neck blast of early rice and mean temperature, sunshine hours from the first ten days of June to the first ten days of July, while positive correlation between that and precipitation, air relative humidity. The occurrence probability of late rice seedling blast increased with the increase of high humidity days and rainy days. There was negative correlation between leaf blast of late rice and mean temperature, sunshine hours from second ten days of August to the first ten days of September, while positive correlation between that and precipitation, air relative humidity. However, there was positive correlation between neck blast of late rice and mean temperature, air relative humidity in September, while negative correlation between that and precipitation, sunshine hours. Based on the correlation among rice blast occurrence and meteorological factors and the absolute difference value between the same sign rate and the opposite sign rate, the rice blast occurrence potential meteorological index were calculated and the meteorological forecasting model was established. The accuracy rate was 60% - 75% by testing substitution, and the accuracy rates of severe grade was higher than slight grade.
