CAJ | 학술논문

基于东北三省68个气象站1961－2010年的逐日气象数据,利用 Penmen￣Monteith 公式计算玉米生育期内的逐日参考作物蒸散量,结合逐日降水量资料构建干旱指数( CWD)；将整个分析期按照3个准30a 周期(1961－1990、1971－2000和1981－2010年)进行统计,计算不同周期内东北地区 CWD 的理论概率分布函数,分别求得累积概率≤5％、≤15％和≤25％时各站的 CWD 值作为重旱、中旱和轻旱划分标准的阈值,并以不同时间尺度分别厘定保险纯费率；对3个时段的结果进行对比,以分析气候变化对干旱指数保险产品纯费率厘定的影响。结果表明,干旱指数 CWD 能很好地指示东北玉米干旱风险,1961－2010玉米生育期内全区干旱风险由东向西递增,西部为常年干旱区；各时段内多数站点表现为旱情加重；从重灾到轻灾,旱情加重的站点减少而旱情减轻的站点增多；基于 CWD 厘定的玉米旱灾保险纯费率与单产减产率的厘定结果近似(相关系数0.893),时间变化上表现为先增后降。这说明一种公平科学的保险纯费率应考虑气候变化的影响,随各时段灾害风险的不同作适当调整。
기우동북삼성68개기상참1961－2010년적축일기상수거,이용 Penmen￣Monteith 공식계산옥미생육기내적축일삼고작물증산량,결합축일강수량자료구건간한지수( CWD)；장정개분석기안조3개준30a 주기(1961－1990、1971－2000화1981－2010년)진행통계,계산불동주기내동북지구 CWD 적이론개솔분포함수,분별구득루적개솔≤5％、≤15％화≤25％시각참적 CWD 치작위중한、중한화경한화분표준적역치,병이불동시간척도분별전정보험순비솔；대3개시단적결과진행대비,이분석기후변화대간한지수보험산품순비솔전정적영향。결과표명,간한지수 CWD 능흔호지지시동북옥미간한풍험,1961－2010옥미생육기내전구간한풍험유동향서체증,서부위상년간한구；각시단내다수참점표현위한정가중；종중재도경재,한정가중적참점감소이한정감경적참점증다；기우 CWD 전정적옥미한재보험순비솔여단산감산솔적전정결과근사(상관계수0.893),시간변화상표현위선증후강。저설명일충공평과학적보험순비솔응고필기후변화적영향,수각시단재해풍험적불동작괄당조정。
Based on the daily meteorological data of 68 stations in Northeast China during 1961 - 2010, daily reference evapotranspiration during maize growing duration was calculated by using Penman￣Monteith formula. Combined with daily precipitation, a indicator￣crop water deficit (CWD) was designed to indicate drought risk. The whole analysis period was divided into three 30￣year period ( 1961 - 1990, 1971 - 2000 and 1981 - 2010 ). The probability distribution function of CWD was built and critical value of CWD was calculated with cumulative probability ≤5% ,≤15% and ≤25% , respectively. These values were set as a division criterion of severe￣drought, moderate￣drought and slight￣drought and used to calculate pure premium rate according to different time scales. CWD was proved to be able to indicate drought risk of maize well in Northeast China. The investigation showed that drought risk of whole region increased from east to west during the period of 1961 - 2010, and the western region was taking drought risk throughout these years. Most stations showed a drought aggravation and the number of stations was decreasing from severe￣drought to slight￣drought. Pure premium rate based on CWD was close to the results based on yield loss (correlation coefficient was 0. 893), and it performed a decreasing trend after increasing in time series. Therefore, fair and scientific premium rate should be calculated considering the impact of climate change and appropriate adjustments should be made according to drought risk of each period.