中国农业气象
中國農業氣象
중국농업기상
AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY
2015年
3期
338-345
,共8页
湖南晚稻%抽穗扬花期%寒露风%气候变化%均生函数%预测
湖南晚稻%抽穗颺花期%寒露風%氣候變化%均生函數%預測
호남만도%추수양화기%한로풍%기후변화%균생함수%예측
Late rice in Hunan%Heading and flowering period%Autumn low temperature%Climate changing%Mean generating function%Predict
寒露风为9月日平均气温≤20℃且持续3d 或以上的低温天气过程，是影响湖南双季晚稻生产的主要农业气象灾害。利用1961－2013年湖南19个气象站的日平均气温资料，将湖南分为湘北、湘中、湘南3个区域，统计各区历年第一次寒露风的开始日期，构建各区寒露风初日时间序列，分析其变化特征并利用均生函数方法建立各区寒露风初日预测模型。结果表明：近53a 湖南各区域寒露风初日年代际变化特征显著，寒露风初日平均在9月下旬中后期；最早出现日期为：湘北、湘中在9月上旬初，湘南在9月上旬末；最迟出现日期为：湘北在10月中旬前期，湘中、湘南在10月中旬后期。影响双季晚稻产量的寒露风发生频率为：湘北约3a 两遇、湘中约2a 一遇、湘南约5a 两遇。基于均生函数建立的湖南寒露风初日预测模型，历史拟合率为：湘北、湘中92％、湘南94％；2011－2014年预测结果表明模型对湖南寒露风初日具有较强的预测能力。
寒露風為9月日平均氣溫≤20℃且持續3d 或以上的低溫天氣過程，是影響湖南雙季晚稻生產的主要農業氣象災害。利用1961－2013年湖南19箇氣象站的日平均氣溫資料，將湖南分為湘北、湘中、湘南3箇區域，統計各區歷年第一次寒露風的開始日期，構建各區寒露風初日時間序列，分析其變化特徵併利用均生函數方法建立各區寒露風初日預測模型。結果錶明：近53a 湖南各區域寒露風初日年代際變化特徵顯著，寒露風初日平均在9月下旬中後期；最早齣現日期為：湘北、湘中在9月上旬初，湘南在9月上旬末；最遲齣現日期為：湘北在10月中旬前期，湘中、湘南在10月中旬後期。影響雙季晚稻產量的寒露風髮生頻率為：湘北約3a 兩遇、湘中約2a 一遇、湘南約5a 兩遇。基于均生函數建立的湖南寒露風初日預測模型，歷史擬閤率為：湘北、湘中92％、湘南94％；2011－2014年預測結果錶明模型對湖南寒露風初日具有較彊的預測能力。
한로풍위9월일평균기온≤20℃차지속3d 혹이상적저온천기과정，시영향호남쌍계만도생산적주요농업기상재해。이용1961－2013년호남19개기상참적일평균기온자료，장호남분위상북、상중、상남3개구역，통계각구력년제일차한로풍적개시일기，구건각구한로풍초일시간서렬，분석기변화특정병이용균생함수방법건립각구한로풍초일예측모형。결과표명：근53a 호남각구역한로풍초일년대제변화특정현저，한로풍초일평균재9월하순중후기；최조출현일기위：상북、상중재9월상순초，상남재9월상순말；최지출현일기위：상북재10월중순전기，상중、상남재10월중순후기。영향쌍계만도산량적한로풍발생빈솔위：상북약3a 량우、상중약2a 일우、상남약5a 량우。기우균생함수건립적호남한로풍초일예측모형，역사의합솔위：상북、상중92％、상남94％；2011－2014년예측결과표명모형대호남한로풍초일구유교강적예측능력。
Autumn Low Temperature ( ALT) is low temperature weather processes which daily average temperature during September less than or equal to 20℃ and continues more than three days, meanwhile it is main agricultural meteorological disasters which affect the double season late rice production in Hunan province. Based on daily temperature data from meteorological stations in Hunan during 1961 - 2013, the climate changing characteristics of beginning date of ALT in different regions of Hunan were analyzed, and predict model of beginning date of ALT was built by using the mean generating function based on the time series of beginning date of ALT from 1961 to 2010. The results showed that beginning date of ALT in different regions presents significant interdecadal variation during last 53 years. Average beginning date of ALT appears in later period of late September. The earliest time of northern and central Hunan appears in the beginning of early September, and which of southern Hunan appears in the late of early September. The latest time of northern Hunan appears in the early stage of the middle of October, and which of southern and central Hunan appears in the late of middle October. Frequency of occurrence of ALT which affects the double crop late rice production in southern Hunan met twice in three years, which in central Hunan met once in two years and in southern Hunan met twice in five years. The results of predict model of beginning date of ALT which had been built by using the mean generating function showed that the historical fitting rate was 92% in northern and central Hunan and which was 94% in southern Hunan. The predict results during 2011 to 2014 showed that the mean generating function model has strong predictive ability for beginning date of Autumn Low Temperature in Hunan.
