CAJ | 학술논문

为研究适用的山洪灾害预报预警技术，选定湖南临湘市为试验区，应用统计分析法拟定试验区各预警分区的临界雨量值，并采用当前国内外最新的定量降雨预报技术，引入WRF数值预报模式开展了定量降雨预报。在综合考虑试验区临界雨量、实测雨量和预报雨量基础上，提出了针对山洪灾害的三级预警技术应用方案(“内部告警”、“准备转移”及“立即转移”)。2014年汛期(5~9月)对该方案进行了实时试验。试验结果表明，该时段并未出现符合山洪预警条件的现象，与实际灾害灾情报告一致。针对试验区的临界雨量拟定及山洪预警技术应用方案适用可行，可为类似山洪灾害防治地区提供借鉴。
위연구괄용적산홍재해예보예경기술，선정호남림상시위시험구，응용통계분석법의정시험구각예경분구적림계우량치，병채용당전국내외최신적정량강우예보기술，인입WRF수치예보모식개전료정량강우예보。재종합고필시험구림계우량、실측우량화예보우량기출상，제출료침대산홍재해적삼급예경기술응용방안(“내부고경”、“준비전이”급“립즉전이”)。2014년신기(5~9월)대해방안진행료실시시험。시험결과표명，해시단병미출현부합산홍예경조건적현상，여실제재해재정보고일치。침대시험구적림계우량의정급산홍예경기술응용방안괄용가행，가위유사산홍재해방치지구제공차감。
To study the forecasting and early-warning technology for mountain torrent disasters, Linxiang City Hunan Province is selected as an experimental area. The quantified forecast for precipitation was performed by WRF numerical prediction model in consideration with the newest quantified precipitation forecast technology at home and abroad, and the rainfall threshold in each sub-warning area is provided by the statistical analysis method. We proposed 3-grade early-warning solutions for mountain torrent disasters, including internal warning, transfer preparation and immediate transfer, based on rainfall threshold, measured rainfall and forecasted rainfall. This early -warning project was tested in flood season ( May to September) in 2014, and no warning threshold was reached over that period for mountain torrent disasters, which was in good agreement with the actual condi-tions. The calculation method of rainfall threshold and the early-warning project for mountain torrent disasters are feasible in the experimental area.