CAJ | 학술논문

为了认识我国西南地区历史长期旱涝灾害演变规律,采用频率统计、突变检验和小波分析等方法,评估了该地区整体以及各省区市近500 a的旱涝灾害时空变化特征。结果表明,西南地区旱涝灾害具有明显的年代际特征,自19世纪以来,旱涝灾害逐渐增多,20世纪灾害频繁,2~3 a的短周期现象较为显著；不同地区间的旱涝灾害差异明显。研究结果对于该地区防灾减灾、工程建设及其相关程度研究等都有重要价值。
위료인식아국서남지구역사장기한로재해연변규률,채용빈솔통계、돌변검험화소파분석등방법,평고료해지구정체이급각성구시근500 a적한로재해시공변화특정。결과표명,서남지구한로재해구유명현적년대제특정,자19세기이래,한로재해축점증다,20세기재해빈번,2~3 a적단주기현상교위현저；불동지구간적한로재해차이명현。연구결과대우해지구방재감재、공정건설급기상관정도연구등도유중요개치。
To understand the historical long-term evolution laws of drought-flood events in southwest China, by using the frequency statistics, mutation test and wavelet analysis, the spatial-temporal evolution of drought-flood events of various prov-inces and city there in 500 years is evaluated. The results show that the characteristic of drought-flood events in the area is dec-adal. The drought-flood events increased since 19th century and became more frequent in 20th century;the 2- to- 3- year period phenomenon was obvious;the variation of drought-flood disaster was distinct in different areas. The research results are of great significance for the disaster prevention and mitigation, engineering construction and relative theoretical research.