CAJ | 학술논문

根据星载原子钟钟差的特点,提出一种基于一次差的灰色GM(1,1)钟差预报方法。该方法首先对相邻历元的钟差作一次差,然后以一次差后的值建立灰色模型预报一次差的值,最后将预报的一次差还原即得到钟差预报值。以IGS (International GNSS Service)提供的采样率为5 min的精密钟差为实验数据,通过对不同长度的建模数据和不同预报步长进行对比分析。结果表明：该方法的预报精度较传统的灰色模型有了较大提高,特别是对于PRN01原子钟,其预报效果最好；采用一次差原理可有效改善和提高模型预报的精度和稳定性,应用于钟差较长时间预报是可行的,可靠性较强。
근거성재원자종종차적특점,제출일충기우일차차적회색GM(1,1)종차예보방법。해방법수선대상린역원적종차작일차차,연후이일차차후적치건립회색모형예보일차차적치,최후장예보적일차차환원즉득도종차예보치。이IGS (International GNSS Service)제공적채양솔위5 min적정밀종차위실험수거,통과대불동장도적건모수거화불동예보보장진행대비분석。결과표명：해방법적예보정도교전통적회색모형유료교대제고,특별시대우PRN01원자종,기예보효과최호；채용일차차원리가유효개선화제고모형예보적정도화은정성,응용우종차교장시간예보시가행적,가고성교강。
Considering the characteristics of satellite clock bias (SCB), a grey G-M(1,1) model based on the first difference method is proposed. Firstly, first difference for two SCB values of adjacent epoch is derived to obtain the corresponding first d-ifference sequences. Then, a grey model is made based on the sequences to predict first difference values of the following time series. Finally, the predicted sequences are recovered to the corresponding predicted SCB. The clock difference data provided by the IGS (International GNSS Service) experiment are used to the experiment, and the cases with different lengths of data model and prediction step lengths are compared and analyzed. The result shows that prediction accuracy of this method is higher than that of the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, especially for the PRN01 satellite clock, whose forecast effect is the best; With first difference, the model prediction accuracy and stability can be effectively improved and enhanced. This method is feasible and reliable in the application of the relatively long time SCB prediction.