CAJ | 학술논문

近年来人们对于自然灾害易损性的基本构成已经初步达成了共识，包括暴露性、敏感性和恢复适应能力，但对于其相互关系尚未有过深入的分析。易损性评价中多是将暴露性、敏感性和恢复适应能力等指标杂糅一起，或者虽然分开选择评价指标但在最后评价时依旧作为一体，没有对整个人地系统的内在机理深入分析。针对泥石流灾害，尝试综合分析整个人地环境的暴露性、敏感性、恢复适应能力之间关系及其对易损性的影响，借鉴经济学中的C-D生产函数建立了易损性的评价函数。在近50 a研究区历史灾情的统计分析基础上，确定了暴露性、敏感性的评价指标，并且由累积的各项损失情况确定敏感性评价指标权重，从灾害造成的直接经济损失出发对函数参数进行估计。通过对不同参数计算结果的对比分析，得出人类社会系统的敏感性对于区域的易损性的贡献率约为0.8，远高于地质灾害暴露性的贡献率0.2。最后完善了生产函数的评价方法，并将其应用于当前研究区的泥石流易损性评价中，为未来如何减少区域泥石流的易损性提出了参考意见。
근년래인문대우자연재해역손성적기본구성이경초보체성료공식，포괄폭로성、민감성화회복괄응능력，단대우기상호관계상미유과심입적분석。역손성평개중다시장폭로성、민감성화회복괄응능력등지표잡유일기，혹자수연분개선택평개지표단재최후평개시의구작위일체，몰유대정개인지계통적내재궤리심입분석。침대니석류재해，상시종합분석정개인지배경적폭로성、민감성、회복괄응능력지간관계급기대역손성적영향，차감경제학중적C-D생산함수건립료역손성적평개함수。재근50 a연구구역사재정적통계분석기출상，학정료폭로성、민감성적평개지표，병차유루적적각항손실정황학정민감성평개지표권중，종재해조성적직접경제손실출발대함수삼수진행고계。통과대불동삼수계산결과적대비분석，득출인류사회계통적민감성대우구역적역손성적공헌솔약위0.8，원고우지질재해폭로성적공헌솔0.2。최후완선료생산함수적평개방법，병장기응용우당전연구구적니석류역손성평개중，위미래여하감소구역니석류적역손성제출료삼고의견。
Recently the basic parts of natural disasters vulnerability have reached a preliminary consensus,which is including exposure,sensitivity and resilience,but there hasn′t been any in-depth analysis for its internal relation-ships. Vulnerability assessment aways mingle the exposure,sensitivity and resilience index together,or although the choice of evaluation index are separate,the final evaluation still as a whole,there is no inherent mechanism of the system analysis. This paper attempts a comprehensive analysis of the debris flow disaster,considering the rela-tionship between exposure,sensitivity,resilience of the coupled human and environmental systems and the influ-ence about vulnerability,with reference to the C-D production function in economics and established vulnerability assessment function. On the basis of analysis the loss of debris flow in the research area nearly 50 years history,the evaluation index of exposure and sensitivity are ascertained,and the weight of sensitivity evaluation index are deter-mined by the accumulated loss of different types,then the function parameter are estimated from the direct econom-ic losses of the disaster. By comparing the calculated results with different parameters,the contribution rate about sensitivity of human social and economic system for region vulnerability is about 0 . 8 ,far higher than the geological hazard exposure of the contribution rate of 0. 2. Finally,the vulnerability evaluation method of production function is consummated,and then apply it to assess the current vulnerability in the study area,finally some suggestions are put forward on how to reduce the region vulnerability.