山地学报
山地學報
산지학보
JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
2015年
3期
294-302
,共9页
蓝永超%丁宏伟%胡兴林%石明星%马蔷
藍永超%丁宏偉%鬍興林%石明星%馬薔
람영초%정굉위%호흥림%석명성%마장
西北内陆干旱区%黑河山区%气温%降水%出山径流
西北內陸榦旱區%黑河山區%氣溫%降水%齣山徑流
서북내륙간한구%흑하산구%기온%강수%출산경류
northwest inland arid areas%mountainous watershed of Heihe River%temperature%precipitation%runoff from mountainous area
基于黑河干流上游山区（以下简称黑河山区）及周边有关台站的观测数据，对该区域1960—2013年气温、降水的季节变化特征及区域差异进行分析。结果表明：黑河山区干、支流各区的气温变化与全球气温变化有着较好的一致性，气温升幅率明显高于过去50 a全球与中国平均气温的升幅，年平均气温的年代际变化的上升趋势比年际变化的更为显著，但不同区域年与各季气温的上升幅度存在着一定的差异，各区气温的气候倾向率变化呈现出一种由南向北逐步减小的趋势。其中，位于中高山地区的东、西支流域冬季气温升幅最大，位于中低山区的干流区则以秋季气温升幅最大，且各区均以春季气温升幅最小。东、西支流各区年平均与各季节气温发生变暖的突变时间基本上出现在1990年代中后期；干流区年平均与各季节气温发生变暖的突变时间差异较大。尽管山区干、支流各区各季节降水均呈波动增长的态势，但年降水量增幅差异较大。其中，以东支增幅最大，干流区增幅最小；各区各季降水量的年际变化总体上亦呈波动增长的态势；夏秋季降水增加比较明显，冬、春季降水量变化趋势不明显。各区年与各季降水量的年代际的变化较年际变化波动更为剧烈。冬春季降水波动幅度大于夏、秋季降水；各区各年代降水量增加或减少并不完全同步。东、西支两区年降水量系列均在1974年发生降水量增加的突变，而干流区年降水则无明显的突变点；东、西支两区春、夏、秋三季降水量系列均有明显增加或减少的突变点，但出现时间不一致；干流区除夏季降水在1970年初发生明显增加的突变外，其他各季降水量均无明显突变点；除西支冬季降水量在1970年中期后发生明显增加的突变外，整个山区冬季降水量均无明显突变点。总体上讲，黑河山区气候持续转向暖湿，受其影响，黑河出山径流目前的丰水态势仍将会持续下去。
基于黑河榦流上遊山區（以下簡稱黑河山區）及週邊有關檯站的觀測數據，對該區域1960—2013年氣溫、降水的季節變化特徵及區域差異進行分析。結果錶明：黑河山區榦、支流各區的氣溫變化與全毬氣溫變化有著較好的一緻性，氣溫升幅率明顯高于過去50 a全毬與中國平均氣溫的升幅，年平均氣溫的年代際變化的上升趨勢比年際變化的更為顯著，但不同區域年與各季氣溫的上升幅度存在著一定的差異，各區氣溫的氣候傾嚮率變化呈現齣一種由南嚮北逐步減小的趨勢。其中，位于中高山地區的東、西支流域鼕季氣溫升幅最大，位于中低山區的榦流區則以鞦季氣溫升幅最大，且各區均以春季氣溫升幅最小。東、西支流各區年平均與各季節氣溫髮生變暖的突變時間基本上齣現在1990年代中後期；榦流區年平均與各季節氣溫髮生變暖的突變時間差異較大。儘管山區榦、支流各區各季節降水均呈波動增長的態勢，但年降水量增幅差異較大。其中，以東支增幅最大，榦流區增幅最小；各區各季降水量的年際變化總體上亦呈波動增長的態勢；夏鞦季降水增加比較明顯，鼕、春季降水量變化趨勢不明顯。各區年與各季降水量的年代際的變化較年際變化波動更為劇烈。鼕春季降水波動幅度大于夏、鞦季降水；各區各年代降水量增加或減少併不完全同步。東、西支兩區年降水量繫列均在1974年髮生降水量增加的突變，而榦流區年降水則無明顯的突變點；東、西支兩區春、夏、鞦三季降水量繫列均有明顯增加或減少的突變點，但齣現時間不一緻；榦流區除夏季降水在1970年初髮生明顯增加的突變外，其他各季降水量均無明顯突變點；除西支鼕季降水量在1970年中期後髮生明顯增加的突變外，整箇山區鼕季降水量均無明顯突變點。總體上講，黑河山區氣候持續轉嚮暖濕，受其影響，黑河齣山徑流目前的豐水態勢仍將會持續下去。
기우흑하간류상유산구（이하간칭흑하산구）급주변유관태참적관측수거，대해구역1960—2013년기온、강수적계절변화특정급구역차이진행분석。결과표명：흑하산구간、지류각구적기온변화여전구기온변화유착교호적일치성，기온승폭솔명현고우과거50 a전구여중국평균기온적승폭，년평균기온적년대제변화적상승추세비년제변화적경위현저，단불동구역년여각계기온적상승폭도존재착일정적차이，각구기온적기후경향솔변화정현출일충유남향북축보감소적추세。기중，위우중고산지구적동、서지류역동계기온승폭최대，위우중저산구적간류구칙이추계기온승폭최대，차각구균이춘계기온승폭최소。동、서지류각구년평균여각계절기온발생변난적돌변시간기본상출현재1990년대중후기；간류구년평균여각계절기온발생변난적돌변시간차이교대。진관산구간、지류각구각계절강수균정파동증장적태세，단년강수량증폭차이교대。기중，이동지증폭최대，간류구증폭최소；각구각계강수량적년제변화총체상역정파동증장적태세；하추계강수증가비교명현，동、춘계강수량변화추세불명현。각구년여각계강수량적년대제적변화교년제변화파동경위극렬。동춘계강수파동폭도대우하、추계강수；각구각년대강수량증가혹감소병불완전동보。동、서지량구년강수량계렬균재1974년발생강수량증가적돌변，이간류구년강수칙무명현적돌변점；동、서지량구춘、하、추삼계강수량계렬균유명현증가혹감소적돌변점，단출현시간불일치；간류구제하계강수재1970년초발생명현증가적돌변외，기타각계강수량균무명현돌변점；제서지동계강수량재1970년중기후발생명현증가적돌변외，정개산구동계강수량균무명현돌변점。총체상강，흑하산구기후지속전향난습，수기영향，흑하출산경류목전적봉수태세잉장회지속하거。
Based on the observation data at the involved stations,the seasonal variation characteristics of the tem-perature and precipitation in the mountain area of main stream of Heihe River( hereinafter referred to as the moun-tain area of the Heihe River,Gansu of China)during the period from 1960 to 2013 and their regional difference were analyzed. The result shows that all annual and seasonal temperature changing processes in the mountain area of the Heihe River and its every sub-region have being presented the rising trend,which is consistent with the glob-al temperature changing trend,and the rise rates of annual mean temperature in the area is significantly higher than the rise rates of global and China′s mean temperature. The rising trends of the interdecadal mean temperature are more significant than that of the annual mean temperature in the area in the past over 50 years. But,there were some difference in the rise rates of the annual and seasonal average temperature and the climate tendency rates de-crease gradually from the south to the north in the each sub-region of the mountain area of the Heihe River. There-into ,the rise rates of winter temperature were largest in the east and west branch sub-region located in higher alti-tude,and the rise rates of autumn temperature were largest in the main stream sub-region located in lower altitude. The rise rates of spring temperature were smallest in every sub-region. All abrupt changes of annual and seasonal average temperatures in the east and west branch sub-region occurred in the mid and late 1990 s. There were larger difference for the time points of abrupt change of annual and seasonal average temperatures in the main stream re-gion. Precipitation change is more complex than air temperature in the each sub-region of the mountain area of Heihe River. Overall,all changes of precipitation in every sub-region in the mountain area presented an increasing trend,and had some difference in the increasing extent in the annual precipitation in each sub-region. Thereinto, the increased extent of annual precipitation in the east branch sub-region were largest,and that in the main stream region was smallest. Although yearly changes of precipitations the mountain area of Heihe River presented an in-creasing trend as a whole,the rate of increase of the precipitation in each sub-region in each season has large differences. Thereinto,the increasing in summer and autumn were quite significant,and that of precipitation in spring were significant tend for the changes and winter in every sub-region. Fluctuate of inter-decadal variations of the precipitation in each sub-region in each season were more violent than their yearly variation,and the fluctuation range of precipitation in winter and spring were larger than that in summer and autumn. The increase or decrease of precipitation was not synchronized in each sub-region of mountain area of the Heihe River. All abrupt changes of annual precipitation series in the east and west branch sub-regions occurred in 1974 ,and there are not obvious ab-rupt changes in annual precipitation series in the main stream region. There were obvious abrupt change points for all the precipitation series in spring,summer and autumn in the east and west branch regions,but abrupt change appearing times were inconsistent. Except abrupt change of summer precipitation occurring in the early 1970 s,all precipitation in other each season had no obvious abrupt change point in the main stream region. Except the abrupt change of winter precipitation series in west branch regions occurring in the mid 1970 s,all precipitation series in other each sub-region had no obvious abrupt change. In a word,the climate in mountain area of the Heihe River turned sustainedly to warmth and moist. Affected by the warm and wet climate,the current high flow conditions of the mountain runoff of the Heihe River which is supplied mainly mountain precipitation and ice,permafrost and snow melting water by will still continue.
