气象科技进展
氣象科技進展
기상과기진전
Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology
2015年
3期
6-17
,共12页
条件非线性最优扰动%CNOP%目标观测%台风预报
條件非線性最優擾動%CNOP%目標觀測%檯風預報
조건비선성최우우동%CNOP%목표관측%태풍예보
conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP)%targeted observation%typhoon forecast
简要但系统地介绍了条件非线性最优扰动（CNOP）方法在台风目标观测方面的研究进展。CNOP方法是线性奇异向量（SV）方法在非线性领域的一个拓展。在台风目标观测的研究中，该方法主要用来识别对台风预报有重要影响的敏感区，从而可以在这些敏感区内增加观测，改进初始场以提高预报技巧。首先回顾了CNOP方法在台风目标观测中应用的理论基础，接着阐述了CNOP识别的敏感区受模式分辨率、验证区域的设计、优化时长的选取等因素的影响，并给出了利用观测系统模拟试验（OSSE）和观测系统试验（OSE）对CNOP识别的敏感区有效性检验的结果，进一步评述了将CNOP方法应用于实际天气业务预报中进行敏感区识别的可能性，最后对CNOP方法在台风目标观测中的深入应用进行了总结和讨论。
簡要但繫統地介紹瞭條件非線性最優擾動（CNOP）方法在檯風目標觀測方麵的研究進展。CNOP方法是線性奇異嚮量（SV）方法在非線性領域的一箇拓展。在檯風目標觀測的研究中，該方法主要用來識彆對檯風預報有重要影響的敏感區，從而可以在這些敏感區內增加觀測，改進初始場以提高預報技巧。首先迴顧瞭CNOP方法在檯風目標觀測中應用的理論基礎，接著闡述瞭CNOP識彆的敏感區受模式分辨率、驗證區域的設計、優化時長的選取等因素的影響，併給齣瞭利用觀測繫統模擬試驗（OSSE）和觀測繫統試驗（OSE）對CNOP識彆的敏感區有效性檢驗的結果，進一步評述瞭將CNOP方法應用于實際天氣業務預報中進行敏感區識彆的可能性，最後對CNOP方法在檯風目標觀測中的深入應用進行瞭總結和討論。
간요단계통지개소료조건비선성최우우동（CNOP）방법재태풍목표관측방면적연구진전。CNOP방법시선성기이향량（SV）방법재비선성영역적일개탁전。재태풍목표관측적연구중，해방법주요용래식별대태풍예보유중요영향적민감구，종이가이재저사민감구내증가관측，개진초시장이제고예보기교。수선회고료CNOP방법재태풍목표관측중응용적이론기출，접착천술료CNOP식별적민감구수모식분변솔、험증구역적설계、우화시장적선취등인소적영향，병급출료이용관측계통모의시험（OSSE）화관측계통시험（OSE）대CNOP식별적민감구유효성검험적결과，진일보평술료장CNOP방법응용우실제천기업무예보중진행민감구식별적가능성，최후대CNOP방법재태풍목표관측중적심입응용진행료총결화토론。
This paper briefly yet systematically introduces the research progress of the application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) to typhoon targeted observations. The CNOP is an extension of the singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear region. It has been used to identify sensitive areas in typhoon targeted observations. Assimilation observations in this area are hoped to improve the typhoon forecast largely and this area is called sensitive area in this sense. The theoretic basis of the application of CNOP to typhoon observation is ifrst reviewed. Then the impact of the model resolution, the veriifcation area design and the optimization time period on the CNOP-identiifed sensitive areas are described. The effectiveness of the CNOP-identiifed sensitive areas is examined by observation system simulation experiments (OSSE) and observation system experiments (OSE). Finally, the prospect of the application of CNOP method to the operational targeted observations and its further application are discussed and summarized.
