CAJ | 학술논문

以后悔理论为基础，引入机会成本，研究了出行者面临突发交通事故时的行为决策过程。 VMS以一定的时间间隔向出行者发布事故延误时间，并预测每条路径的出行时间；同时，出行者根据自身的选择，计算每条路径的机会成本。结合每条路径的预测出行时间和机会成本，出行者做出最终的选择。用一个算例证明了机会成本对出行者路径选择结果的重要影响，并与效用理论进行了对比，出行者行为决策存在较大的区别。
이후회이론위기출，인입궤회성본，연구료출행자면림돌발교통사고시적행위결책과정。 VMS이일정적시간간격향출행자발포사고연오시간，병예측매조로경적출행시간；동시，출행자근거자신적선택，계산매조로경적궤회성본。결합매조로경적예측출행시간화궤회성본，출행자주출최종적선택。용일개산예증명료궤회성본대출행자로경선택결과적중요영향，병여효용이론진행료대비，출행자행위결책존재교대적구별。
Based on Regret Theory ,introducing opportunity cost ,behavior decision of travelers faced with unexpected accidents has been studied .The VMS publish the traffic incident delay at certain in‐tervals .Travelers forecast travel time of each route .At the same time ,each traveler determined choice of other travelers according to their ow n choice ,and decided the opportunity cost of each route . Combining the forecasting travel time and opportunity cost ,travelers made the final choice .An exam‐ple has been studied to prove the significant impact of opportunity cost to travelers ’ route choice ,and Utility Theory has been contrasted with Regret Theory ,the result shows finding that there is obvious difference for travelers’ behavior decision .