CAJ | 학술논문

在已有对“财政支出和通货膨胀之间的互动关联”的研究中，使用时间序列进行分析则未考虑两者之间关联的非线性特征，而使用面板数据进行分析又难以处理内生性问题。采用马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型（MSVAR）和面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）对“财政支出和通货膨胀之间的互动关联”进行分析可弥补这些不足。应用MSVAR模型和PVAR模型，对我国1994年1月2015年2月的通货膨胀和财政支出数据进行分析得出：中国的财政支出和通货膨胀之间在一般情况下存在正向交互作用，扩张性财政政策是形成通货膨胀的重要力量之一。
재이유대“재정지출화통화팽창지간적호동관련”적연구중，사용시간서렬진행분석칙미고필량자지간관련적비선성특정，이사용면판수거진행분석우난이처리내생성문제。채용마이과부구제전이향량자회귀모형（MSVAR）화면판향량자회귀모형（PVAR）대“재정지출화통화팽창지간적호동관련”진행분석가미보저사불족。응용MSVAR모형화PVAR모형，대아국1994년1월2015년2월적통화팽창화재정지출수거진행분석득출：중국적재정지출화통화팽창지간재일반정황하존재정향교호작용，확장성재정정책시형성통화팽창적중요역량지일。
In the existing researches on interaction between fiscal expenditure and inflation, time series a-nalysis leaves the nonlinear characteristics between them out of account, while panel analysis cannot solve the endogenous problem satisfactorily.The Markov regime switching vector autoregressive model ( MSVAR) and panel vector autoregressive model ( PVAR) could solve these problems.By using the MSVAR model and PVAR model, this paper analyzes the data of the inflation and fiscal expenditure from January 1994 to Feb-ruary 2015 in China, and finds out that there is a positive interaction between fiscal expenditure and infla-tion, thus the expansionary fiscal policy is a major force of the formation of inflation.