CAJ | 학술논문

虚拟经济对经济增长的贡献率等于经济增长泡沫多少的相对测度。利用三变量模型估算了泰国和中国的经济增长泡沫，从而给出1997年亚洲金融风暴首先在泰国爆发的原因，1986～1998年泰国经济增长中有40%的经济泡沫是发生金融危机的数量基础，接下来泰国经济进入了去泡沫发展周期，1999～2010年经济增长只有不足2%的泡沫。作为比较，美国1992～2001年经济增长有三分之一为泡沫，进入21世纪后泡沫继续扩大终于2007破灭。中国2000～2009年经济增长的24%为增长泡沫，2009年增加4万亿刺激计划，其M2已从2009年的60万亿增加到2014年上半年的120万亿，估计中国2009～2014经济增长的30%～40%为增长泡沫，所以中国发生房地产泡沫破灭的危险已接近40%这根临界线。
허의경제대경제증장적공헌솔등우경제증장포말다소적상대측도。이용삼변량모형고산료태국화중국적경제증장포말，종이급출1997년아주금융풍폭수선재태국폭발적원인，1986～1998년태국경제증장중유40%적경제포말시발생금융위궤적수량기출，접하래태국경제진입료거포말발전주기，1999～2010년경제증장지유불족2%적포말。작위비교，미국1992～2001년경제증장유삼분지일위포말，진입21세기후포말계속확대종우2007파멸。중국2000～2009년경제증장적24%위증장포말，2009년증가4만억자격계화，기M2이종2009년적60만억증가도2014년상반년적120만억，고계중국2009～2014경제증장적30%～40%위증장포말，소이중국발생방지산포말파멸적위험이접근40%저근림계선。
Rates of virtual economy’s making a contributions to GDP growth is equal to the measurement of bubble economy growth. By three variables model,we estimated the bubble economy growth in Thailand and China, and we found out the origin of 1997 Asia financial crisis starting in Thailand. There was 40% bubble economy growth in Thailand’s economic growth in1986~1998, being a root of financial crisis occurrence. There was lack 2% bubble economy in Thailand’s economic growth in 1999~2010, an eliminating bubble economy cycle. Moreover, there was 1/3 bubble economy in America’s economic growth in 1992~2001, the bubble kept on enlarging in 21century and broke in 2007. There was 24% bubble economy growth in China’s economic growth in 2000~2009, China increased 4 hundreds of millions to stimulate economic growth in 2009, M2 was 60 hundreds of millions in 2009 to 120 hundreds of millions in six 2014, so we estimated that China’s bubble economy growth was 30%~40% and had approximated the critical line of 40% bubble econo-my, so there is a risk that China’s bubble real estate will break soon.