干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2015年
3期
273-277
,共5页
龚艳冰%张继国%刘高峰%胡娜
龔豔冰%張繼國%劉高峰%鬍娜
공염빙%장계국%류고봉%호나
水资源%干旱特征%标准化降水指数(SPI )%R/S分析
水資源%榦旱特徵%標準化降水指數(SPI )%R/S分析
수자원%간한특정%표준화강수지수(SPI )%R/S분석
water resources%drought characteristic%standardized precipitation index%R/S analysis
利用云南省曲靖市典型水文站1960—2009年的月平均降水量数据资料,计算多时间尺度标准化降水指数(SPI )值,分析了曲靖市近50 a的干旱分布和干旱等级的时空变化特点。在此基础上,利用重标极差分析法(R/S分析法)计算Hurst指数,对曲靖市发生干旱灾害的规律进行研究。研究表明,曲靖市是干旱频发地区,全年平均至少有1/3的月份会发生不同程度的干旱灾害,不同时间尺度SPI指数的H值均大于0.5,说明曲靖市干旱灾害具有长期记忆性,且时间尺度越大,这种长期记忆性越强。因此,曲靖市干旱未来的总体趋势将与过去特征相关,具有自相似性并且发生干旱灾害的周期在15~17 a之间,这与曲靖市的实际情况基本一致。
利用雲南省麯靖市典型水文站1960—2009年的月平均降水量數據資料,計算多時間呎度標準化降水指數(SPI )值,分析瞭麯靖市近50 a的榦旱分佈和榦旱等級的時空變化特點。在此基礎上,利用重標極差分析法(R/S分析法)計算Hurst指數,對麯靖市髮生榦旱災害的規律進行研究。研究錶明,麯靖市是榦旱頻髮地區,全年平均至少有1/3的月份會髮生不同程度的榦旱災害,不同時間呎度SPI指數的H值均大于0.5,說明麯靖市榦旱災害具有長期記憶性,且時間呎度越大,這種長期記憶性越彊。因此,麯靖市榦旱未來的總體趨勢將與過去特徵相關,具有自相似性併且髮生榦旱災害的週期在15~17 a之間,這與麯靖市的實際情況基本一緻。
이용운남성곡정시전형수문참1960—2009년적월평균강수량수거자료,계산다시간척도표준화강수지수(SPI )치,분석료곡정시근50 a적간한분포화간한등급적시공변화특점。재차기출상,이용중표겁차분석법(R/S분석법)계산Hurst지수,대곡정시발생간한재해적규률진행연구。연구표명,곡정시시간한빈발지구,전년평균지소유1/3적월빈회발생불동정도적간한재해,불동시간척도SPI지수적H치균대우0.5,설명곡정시간한재해구유장기기억성,차시간척도월대,저충장기기억성월강。인차,곡정시간한미래적총체추세장여과거특정상관,구유자상사성병차발생간한재해적주기재15~17 a지간,저여곡정시적실제정황기본일치。
Using the monthly mean rainfall data during 1960 to 2009 from typical hydrological station in Qujing City ,Yunnan Province ,calculated the multi time scale standardized precipitation index (SPI ) and analyzed the temporal and spatial change characteristics of drought distribution and drought grade in recent 50 years in Qujing City .On this ba-sis ,using the rescaled range analysis method (R/S ) calculated the Hurst index and researched the rule of drought disas-ter in Qujing City .The research showed that :The Qujing City was the drought frequently occurred region ,in whole year at least one-third of the months will been occurred different degree drought disaster .The H values at different time scale of SPI index were total greater than 0 .5 .It explained that the drought disaster in Qujing City had long period memory , and the greater time scale ,the stronger long term memory .Therefore ,the overall trend of drought in future in Qujing City will be associated with the past characteristic ,had the self similarity and the cycle of drought disaster was 15 to 17 years .It was the basic consistent with the actual situation in the Qujing City .