干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2015年
3期
267-272
,共6页
标准化降水指数(SPI )%冬小麦%气候产量%干旱化趋势%泾惠渠灌区
標準化降水指數(SPI )%鼕小麥%氣候產量%榦旱化趨勢%涇惠渠灌區
표준화강수지수(SPI )%동소맥%기후산량%간한화추세%경혜거관구
standardized precipitation index (SPI)%winter wheat%climate yield%drought tendency%Jinghuiqu Irri-gation District
为了研究干旱变化对于作物产量的影响机制，以泾惠渠灌区为例，选用标准化降水指数SPI作为干旱评判指标，采用Mann－Kendall趋势检验、最大熵谱分析等方法分析了灌区干旱的变化特征，以及干旱演变下冬小麦气候产量的变化规律。研究表明：（1）灌区冬小麦实际产量呈显著增加趋势（ Z＝7．6482），气候产量呈不明显减少趋势（ Z＝－0．5686）；（2）灌区总体干旱化趋势明显（通过了99％的显著性检验），这种趋势在春、夏、秋三季都达到了显著水平；（3）干旱存在16 a的年代际周期波动，4～5 a的年际周期；（4）播种前7—9月份和播种后的10、11月的干旱情况对于冬小麦气候产量的影响最大，是影响作物气候产量的关键期；（5） SPI3－9与冬小麦气候产量关系最密切，可以解释46．21％的产量变异；（6）随着干旱的年代际周期变化，SPI3－9与冬小麦气候产量之间的相关系数从0．44上升至0．74，干旱对于冬小麦气候产量的影响有增强的趋势。
為瞭研究榦旱變化對于作物產量的影響機製，以涇惠渠灌區為例，選用標準化降水指數SPI作為榦旱評判指標，採用Mann－Kendall趨勢檢驗、最大熵譜分析等方法分析瞭灌區榦旱的變化特徵，以及榦旱縯變下鼕小麥氣候產量的變化規律。研究錶明：（1）灌區鼕小麥實際產量呈顯著增加趨勢（ Z＝7．6482），氣候產量呈不明顯減少趨勢（ Z＝－0．5686）；（2）灌區總體榦旱化趨勢明顯（通過瞭99％的顯著性檢驗），這種趨勢在春、夏、鞦三季都達到瞭顯著水平；（3）榦旱存在16 a的年代際週期波動，4～5 a的年際週期；（4）播種前7—9月份和播種後的10、11月的榦旱情況對于鼕小麥氣候產量的影響最大，是影響作物氣候產量的關鍵期；（5） SPI3－9與鼕小麥氣候產量關繫最密切，可以解釋46．21％的產量變異；（6）隨著榦旱的年代際週期變化，SPI3－9與鼕小麥氣候產量之間的相關繫數從0．44上升至0．74，榦旱對于鼕小麥氣候產量的影響有增彊的趨勢。
위료연구간한변화대우작물산량적영향궤제，이경혜거관구위례，선용표준화강수지수SPI작위간한평판지표，채용Mann－Kendall추세검험、최대적보분석등방법분석료관구간한적변화특정，이급간한연변하동소맥기후산량적변화규률。연구표명：（1）관구동소맥실제산량정현저증가추세（ Z＝7．6482），기후산량정불명현감소추세（ Z＝－0．5686）；（2）관구총체간한화추세명현（통과료99％적현저성검험），저충추세재춘、하、추삼계도체도료현저수평；（3）간한존재16 a적년대제주기파동，4～5 a적년제주기；（4）파충전7—9월빈화파충후적10、11월적간한정황대우동소맥기후산량적영향최대，시영향작물기후산량적관건기；（5） SPI3－9여동소맥기후산량관계최밀절，가이해석46．21％적산량변이；（6）수착간한적년대제주기변화，SPI3－9여동소맥기후산량지간적상관계수종0．44상승지0．74，간한대우동소맥기후산량적영향유증강적추세。
In order to study the influence mechanism of drought change on crop yield ,taking the Jinghuiqu Irriga-tion Distric (ID ) as the case study ,selected the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI ) as the drought evaluating index ,us-ing the methods of Mann-Kendall trend test and maximum entropy spectrum analysis to analyze the variation characteris-tics of drought in ID and the change rule of the climatic yield of winter wheat under drought evolution .The research showed that :(1 ) The real winter wheat yield in the ID has been showed a significantly rising trend ( Z=7 .6482 ) ,while the climatic yield was presented not obvious downward trend ( Z= -0 .5686 );(2 ) The general drought trend in the ID was significant (through significant test at 99% level ) , this trend was reached remarkable level in three seasons as spring ,summer and autumn;(3 ) The drought has existed periodic fluctuation of 16 years ,the variation period was 4 to 5 years ;(4 ) The drought situation in before planting as July to September and after planting as October to November had a great influence on climatic yield of winter wheat ,these were the key periods for influencing crop climatic yield ;(5 ) Climatic yield of winter wheat was closely related to SPI3-9 ,it can be explained 46 .21% of the yield change ;(6) With the change of the drought periodic cycle , r the correlation efficient of SPI3-9 with the climatic yield of winter wheat was increased from 0 .44 to 0 .74 ,the impact of drought on climatic yields was showed an increasing trend .
