CAJ | 학술논문

基于河南省1978—2012年相关时间序列数据，构建遗传算法－BP神经网络模型，对研究期间河南省农用地集约利用水平进行测算。在此基础上，应用协整理论、误差修正模型、广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解，研究了河南省农用地集约利用与其影响因素的动态响应关系。结果表明，农用地集约利用综合指数和农民人均收入、农业总产值、人均耕地、政策法规存在长期均衡关系；农民人均收入、农业总产值和政策法规对农用地集约利用推动作用长期内更为显著；农民人均收入和政策法规是农用地集约利用预测方差的主要来源，总贡献保持在52％以上，而农业总产值和人均耕地对农用地集约利用预测方差的贡献不足14％。从整体看，河南省农民人均收入和政策法规是影响农用地集约利用的主要因素。最后根据研究结论提出了相关政策建议。
기우하남성1978—2012년상관시간서렬수거，구건유전산법－BP신경망락모형，대연구기간하남성농용지집약이용수평진행측산。재차기출상，응용협정이론、오차수정모형、엄의맥충향응함수화방차분해，연구료하남성농용지집약이용여기영향인소적동태향응관계。결과표명，농용지집약이용종합지수화농민인균수입、농업총산치、인균경지、정책법규존재장기균형관계；농민인균수입、농업총산치화정책법규대농용지집약이용추동작용장기내경위현저；농민인균수입화정책법규시농용지집약이용예측방차적주요래원，총공헌보지재52％이상，이농업총산치화인균경지대농용지집약이용예측방차적공헌불족14％。종정체간，하남성농민인균수입화정책법규시영향농용지집약이용적주요인소。최후근거연구결론제출료상관정책건의。
Based on the related time series data from 1978 to 2012 in Henan Province ,constructed the genetic algo-rithm-BP neural network model and measured the intensive use of agricultural land .On this basis ,using the cointegra-tion theory ,error correction model ,general impulse response function and variance decomposition ,researched the dy-namic response relationship between intensive use of agricultural land and its influencing factors . The results showed that:There were a long-term equilibrium relationship between the comprehensive index of intensive use of agricultural land and per capita income of farmers ,total value of farm output ,per capital arable land and policy and rules .The pro-moting role to the intensive use of agricultural land by the per capita income of farmers ,total value of farm output ,policy and rules were more significant in long term .The per capita income of farmers and policy and rules was the major source for forecasting variance of intensive use of agricultural land .The total contribution was kept above 52% .But the contri-bution of total value of farm output and per capital arable land to forecasting variance of intensive use of agricultural land was below 14% .On the whole ,the per capita income of farmers and policy and rules were the major factor to affec the intensive use of agricultural land .Finally ,according to the research conclusion ,put forward the related policy and sug-gestions .