CAJ | 학술논문

以中国推行的城乡居民养老保险制度为依据，阐述了养老保险个人账户未来的超支问题；分缴费档次设计了个人账户基金的收支模型和变量参数，运用利息理论构建了超支测算模型，并运用构建的模型对陕西省的2015－2043年的城乡居民养老保险个人账户超支额进行预测；研究结果表明，陕西省城乡居民养老保险个人账户超支额将经历快速增长、缓慢下降和快速增长的过程。
이중국추행적성향거민양로보험제도위의거，천술료양로보험개인장호미래적초지문제；분격비당차설계료개인장호기금적수지모형화변량삼수，운용이식이론구건료초지측산모형，병운용구건적모형대합서성적2015－2043년적성향거민양로보험개인장호초지액진행예측；연구결과표명，합서성성향거민양로보험개인장호초지액장경력쾌속증장、완만하강화쾌속증장적과정。
Based on China′s current implementation of the new rural social pension insurance system,this paper studies the future overspending problem of personal pension insurance accounts by designing a personal account fund budget model and variable parameters according to different paying grades,constructing an overruns calculation model based on the interest the-ory,and predicts the overexpenditure of the personal account of new rural social pension insurance in Shaanxi province from 2013 to 2043 with these established models.The results show that the overexpenditure the personal account of new rural social pension insurance in Shaanxi province will experience three stages:rapid growth ,slow decline and rapid growth again.