广义虚拟经济研究
廣義虛擬經濟研究
엄의허의경제연구
RESEARCH ON THE GENERLIZED FICTITIOUS ECONOMY
2015年
2期
71-76
,共6页
房价波动%股价波动%居民消费%经济波动
房價波動%股價波動%居民消費%經濟波動
방개파동%고개파동%거민소비%경제파동
price lfuctuations%stock price volatility%consumer%economic lfuctuations
房价和股价波动如何影响宏观经济，又如何对居民消费产生影响？这是很多人都感兴趣却又让人迷惑的问题。本文运用相关性检验、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验对中国1998-2010年间中国房价、股价、居民消费和经济波动的特征及根源进行了较为全面的互动研究。结果发现，四者关系复杂，各变量均呈现出一定的顺周期特性且互相关联，房价和股价波动会早于经济波动和消费波动，这说明房地产和股票确实是宏观经济的晴雨表。但研究还发现，房价和股价波动对居民消费和经济波动冲击的影响力度不大，而居民消费与房价波动和经济波动之间均存在双向因果关系。而且，房价波动对经济波动的影响更为复杂，可通过消费和股价波动两个传导途径间接作用于经济波动。
房價和股價波動如何影響宏觀經濟，又如何對居民消費產生影響？這是很多人都感興趣卻又讓人迷惑的問題。本文運用相關性檢驗、方差分解和格蘭傑因果檢驗對中國1998-2010年間中國房價、股價、居民消費和經濟波動的特徵及根源進行瞭較為全麵的互動研究。結果髮現，四者關繫複雜，各變量均呈現齣一定的順週期特性且互相關聯，房價和股價波動會早于經濟波動和消費波動，這說明房地產和股票確實是宏觀經濟的晴雨錶。但研究還髮現，房價和股價波動對居民消費和經濟波動遲擊的影響力度不大，而居民消費與房價波動和經濟波動之間均存在雙嚮因果關繫。而且，房價波動對經濟波動的影響更為複雜，可通過消費和股價波動兩箇傳導途徑間接作用于經濟波動。
방개화고개파동여하영향굉관경제，우여하대거민소비산생영향？저시흔다인도감흥취각우양인미혹적문제。본문운용상관성검험、방차분해화격란걸인과검험대중국1998-2010년간중국방개、고개、거민소비화경제파동적특정급근원진행료교위전면적호동연구。결과발현，사자관계복잡，각변량균정현출일정적순주기특성차호상관련，방개화고개파동회조우경제파동화소비파동，저설명방지산화고표학실시굉관경제적청우표。단연구환발현，방개화고개파동대거민소비화경제파동충격적영향력도불대，이거민소비여방개파동화경제파동지간균존재쌍향인과관계。이차，방개파동대경제파동적영향경위복잡，가통과소비화고개파동량개전도도경간접작용우경제파동。
House price and stocks price how they affect macroeconomic volatility, and how does it impact the consumer? This is a lot of people are interested in but confusing issue. In this paper, correlation test, vari-ance decomposition and Granger causality test for 1998-2010 between the root of Chinese characteristics and prices, stock prices, consumer and economic lfuctuations China conducted a more comprehensive study of the interaction. It was found that the relationship between the four complex variables were shown some pro-cyclical characteristics and interrelated, prices and price volatility will be earlier than the economic fluctuations and consumption volatility, indicating that the real estate and the stock is indeed macroeco-nomic barometer. But the study also found that prices and volatility of consumption and economic impact of fluctuations in the intensity of the impact of population has little, while two-way causal relationship existed between the consumer and the price fluctuations and economic fluctuations. Moreover, the impact of price fluctuations on economic fluctuations more complex, indirect effects may fluctuate two pathways through the consumption and price lfuctuations in the economy.
