伊犁师范学院学报（自然科学版）
伊犛師範學院學報（自然科學版）
이리사범학원학보（자연과학판）
JOURNAL OF ILI NORMAL UNIVERSITY
2015年
2期
9-14
,共6页
若羌盆地%沙漠化%微分方程模型预测%指数平滑模型预测
若羌盆地%沙漠化%微分方程模型預測%指數平滑模型預測
약강분지%사막화%미분방정모형예측%지수평활모형예측
The Ruoqiang Basin%Desertification%The prediction model of differential equation%the prediction model of exponential smoothing
沙漠化是新疆面临的最严重的环境问题之一。为了减少沙漠化对新疆经济发展带来的巨大损失，对沙漠化未来的变化趋势作出正确的预测显得尤为重要。以若羌盆地为例，建立沙漠化预测模型。首先利用微分方程模型和指数平滑模型对该地区2000~2011年沙漠化土地、有沙漠化趋势的土地、非沙漠化土地的面积进行数值模拟，结果表明，指数平滑模型预测的结果更接近原始数据，误差更小，准确率更高，说明指数平滑模型可以很好地预测沙漠化土地、有沙漠化趋势的土地和非沙漠化土地。其次，分别运用微分方程模型和指数平滑模型预测了该地区2012~2025年的沙漠化土地面积、有沙漠化趋势的土地面积、非沙漠化土地面积，再次验证了指数平滑模型在预测未来沙漠化变化趋势方面的优势。最后得出结论：指数平滑模型可以很好地预测未来沙漠化土地、有沙漠化趋势的土地、非沙漠化土地的变化趋势。
沙漠化是新疆麵臨的最嚴重的環境問題之一。為瞭減少沙漠化對新疆經濟髮展帶來的巨大損失，對沙漠化未來的變化趨勢作齣正確的預測顯得尤為重要。以若羌盆地為例，建立沙漠化預測模型。首先利用微分方程模型和指數平滑模型對該地區2000~2011年沙漠化土地、有沙漠化趨勢的土地、非沙漠化土地的麵積進行數值模擬，結果錶明，指數平滑模型預測的結果更接近原始數據，誤差更小，準確率更高，說明指數平滑模型可以很好地預測沙漠化土地、有沙漠化趨勢的土地和非沙漠化土地。其次，分彆運用微分方程模型和指數平滑模型預測瞭該地區2012~2025年的沙漠化土地麵積、有沙漠化趨勢的土地麵積、非沙漠化土地麵積，再次驗證瞭指數平滑模型在預測未來沙漠化變化趨勢方麵的優勢。最後得齣結論：指數平滑模型可以很好地預測未來沙漠化土地、有沙漠化趨勢的土地、非沙漠化土地的變化趨勢。
사막화시신강면림적최엄중적배경문제지일。위료감소사막화대신강경제발전대래적거대손실，대사막화미래적변화추세작출정학적예측현득우위중요。이약강분지위례，건립사막화예측모형。수선이용미분방정모형화지수평활모형대해지구2000~2011년사막화토지、유사막화추세적토지、비사막화토지적면적진행수치모의，결과표명，지수평활모형예측적결과경접근원시수거，오차경소，준학솔경고，설명지수평활모형가이흔호지예측사막화토지、유사막화추세적토지화비사막화토지。기차，분별운용미분방정모형화지수평활모형예측료해지구2012~2025년적사막화토지면적、유사막화추세적토지면적、비사막화토지면적，재차험증료지수평활모형재예측미래사막화변화추세방면적우세。최후득출결론：지수평활모형가이흔호지예측미래사막화토지、유사막화추세적토지、비사막화토지적변화추세。
at present,the desertification disaster is one of the most serious environmental problems Xinjiang faces. In order to reduce the huge losses of desertification disaster to the economic development of Xinjiang ,at the same time in order to stability and unity of the people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang,it is necessary to forecast the future trend of desertification changes. In this paper,taking Ruoqiang basin as an example,we establish desertifi?cation prediction model. First,in the area of desertification land in 2000-2011 years,the trend of desertification of land,non desertification land areas carried on the numerical simulation,using differential equation model and ex?ponential smoothing model results show that the exponential smoothing model,prediction results closer to the origi?nal data,error smaller,more accurate. Secondly,respectively,using differential equation model and exponential smoothing model predicts the land desertification,in 2012-2025 years of the desertification trend of land,non de?sertification land areas,once again proved the exponential smoothing model to predict the future trend of desertifi?cation and potential changes in terms of advantage. Finally the conclusion is:the exponential smoothing model can predict the change trend of desertification land,having the trend of desertification land,non desertification land in the future. The research can provide a powerful reference and guidance for the prevention and control of desertifica?tion in the future,and also has theoretical meaning for desertification research in the future.
