CAJ | 학술논문

考虑天气不确定因素，通过容量概率分布确定容量场景，研究相应容量场景下空域冲突风险，并通过管制员工作负荷体现人为因素影响，提出了空域运行规划安全评估方法。从风险和安全的角度，为恶劣天气下空域运行策略决策提供支持。计算结果表明，飞行安全不但与空域结构有关，还和飞机速度、交通流情况、管制员工作负荷及安全间隔有关。可见该安全评估方法能有效评估空域运行规划策略的安全性，有利于平衡风险及容量需求的最佳运行方案的制定。
고필천기불학정인소，통과용량개솔분포학정용량장경，연구상응용량장경하공역충돌풍험，병통과관제원공작부하체현인위인소영향，제출료공역운행규화안전평고방법。종풍험화안전적각도，위악렬천기하공역운행책략결책제공지지。계산결과표명，비행안전불단여공역결구유관，환화비궤속도、교통류정황、관제원공작부하급안전간격유관。가견해안전평고방법능유효평고공역운행규화책략적안전성，유리우평형풍험급용량수구적최가운행방안적제정。
Considering the uncertain weather factors , this paper studied the coflict risk of the capacity scene determined by the probability distribution of the capacity .Besides, air traffic controller task-load was considered , and a safety assessment method for the airspace opera-tional planning was established .From a risk and safety point of view , the decisions of air-space operation strategy were supported under the bad weather .Calculation result showed that in addition to airspace structure , the flight safety also depended on aircraft speed , traffic demand , air traffic controller task-load and the setting safety standard .The result indicated that the safety assessment method can assess the security of the operational planning effec -tively , it was also good for the determination of the most suitable airspace schedule balancing with risk and capacity requirements .