CAJ | 학술논문

利用NECP／NCAR提供的逐日再分析资料，对江苏省2011年6月24—25日暴雨从环流形势、云图实况对照水汽通量和水汽通道变化3个方面进行了分析，结果表明前期影响该次暴雨过程的天气系统是西风槽，后期是台风，中期是两者相互作用。通过诊断过程水汽通量散度、垂直速度、散度和垂直螺旋度，发现它们作为25日强降水的预报因子，具有预报先兆性，大约有9～12 h的提前预报量。同时，发现近海台风（米雷）中低层垂直螺旋度由负变正并增加时，未来12 h内易出现强降水，而当中低层垂直螺旋度开始明显减小时，未来12 h内降水会逐渐减小，若减小是由正变负，则降水减弱时间更快，提前量在2 h左右。对于24和25日降水性质的不同，运用K指数加以验证，表明24日主要为多对流性降水，25日对流性减弱，以系统性降水为主。
이용NECP／NCAR제공적축일재분석자료，대강소성2011년6월24—25일폭우종배류형세、운도실황대조수기통량화수기통도변화3개방면진행료분석，결과표명전기영향해차폭우과정적천기계통시서풍조，후기시태풍，중기시량자상호작용。통과진단과정수기통량산도、수직속도、산도화수직라선도，발현타문작위25일강강수적예보인자，구유예보선조성，대약유9～12 h적제전예보량。동시，발현근해태풍（미뢰）중저층수직라선도유부변정병증가시，미래12 h내역출현강강수，이당중저층수직라선도개시명현감소시，미래12 h내강수회축점감소，약감소시유정변부，칙강수감약시간경쾌，제전량재2 h좌우。대우24화25일강수성질적불동，운용K지수가이험증，표명24일주요위다대류성강수，25일대류성감약，이계통성강수위주。
Based on the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,an extraordinary storm occurred in Jiangsu province on June 24—25 of 2011 is analyzed from three aspects:circulation situation,nephogram compared with vapor flux,and change of the water vapor channel.The course can be divided into three stages,the first one is caused by trough,the last by typhoon,and the second one mainly results from the interaction of them. The vapor flux divergence,vertical velocity,divergence and vertical helicity have good indication for the forecasting of the coming 9?12 h rainfall inten?sity.It is discovered that for this northbound and offshore typhoon (Meari),when vertical helical degree at middle and low layers increases from negative to positive,rainstorm is prone to occur in 12 h;when it decreases greatly,es?pecially changes from positive to negative,the rainfall intensity of the coming 12 h would decrease rapidly,giving about 2 h of advanced time. Analysis of the K index indicates that the precipitation type of June 24 and June 25 respectively belong to convective and systematic one.