中华老年多器官疾病杂志
中華老年多器官疾病雜誌
중화노년다기관질병잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF MULTIPLE ORGAN DISEASES IN THE ELDERLY
2015年
6期
425-430
,共6页
老年人%吸烟%肺肿瘤%危险因素%随访研究
老年人%吸煙%肺腫瘤%危險因素%隨訪研究
노년인%흡연%폐종류%위험인소%수방연구
aged%smoking%lung neoplasms%risk factors%follow-up studies
目的：探讨西安市军队老年男性肺癌死亡的危险因素。方法研究对象选择1987年建立的西安市22个军队干休所的全部男性离退休干部队列人群，共计1268人，观察终点指标为肺癌死亡，采用多元Cox比例风险模型计算相对危险度（RR）值和95%CI。结果截止2009年9月30日，共观察21,300.05人年，平均随访16.80人年。死亡725人，527人存活，16人失访。多元Cox模型分析显示，吸烟指数、既往慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）病史和癌症史与肺癌死亡相关，其RR及95%CI分别为1.001（1.001～1.002）、1.966（1.261～3.065）、6.628（2.399～18.317）；死亡风险随既往吸烟量的增多、吸烟年限的延长而升高，存在剂量反应关系；≤17岁开始吸烟者较＞17岁开始吸烟者肺癌风险提高了90.8%。结论吸烟、既往COPD史、既往癌症史是该队列老年男性肺癌死亡的危险因素，尤其是开始吸烟年龄≤17岁的青少年风险高。
目的：探討西安市軍隊老年男性肺癌死亡的危險因素。方法研究對象選擇1987年建立的西安市22箇軍隊榦休所的全部男性離退休榦部隊列人群，共計1268人，觀察終點指標為肺癌死亡，採用多元Cox比例風險模型計算相對危險度（RR）值和95%CI。結果截止2009年9月30日，共觀察21,300.05人年，平均隨訪16.80人年。死亡725人，527人存活，16人失訪。多元Cox模型分析顯示，吸煙指數、既往慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）病史和癌癥史與肺癌死亡相關，其RR及95%CI分彆為1.001（1.001～1.002）、1.966（1.261～3.065）、6.628（2.399～18.317）；死亡風險隨既往吸煙量的增多、吸煙年限的延長而升高，存在劑量反應關繫；≤17歲開始吸煙者較＞17歲開始吸煙者肺癌風險提高瞭90.8%。結論吸煙、既往COPD史、既往癌癥史是該隊列老年男性肺癌死亡的危險因素，尤其是開始吸煙年齡≤17歲的青少年風險高。
목적：탐토서안시군대노년남성폐암사망적위험인소。방법연구대상선택1987년건립적서안시22개군대간휴소적전부남성리퇴휴간부대렬인군，공계1268인，관찰종점지표위폐암사망，채용다원Cox비례풍험모형계산상대위험도（RR）치화95%CI。결과절지2009년9월30일，공관찰21,300.05인년，평균수방16.80인년。사망725인，527인존활，16인실방。다원Cox모형분석현시，흡연지수、기왕만성조새성폐질병（COPD）병사화암증사여폐암사망상관，기RR급95%CI분별위1.001（1.001～1.002）、1.966（1.261～3.065）、6.628（2.399～18.317）；사망풍험수기왕흡연량적증다、흡연년한적연장이승고，존재제량반응관계；≤17세개시흡연자교＞17세개시흡연자폐암풍험제고료90.8%。결론흡연、기왕COPD사、기왕암증사시해대렬노년남성폐암사망적위험인소，우기시개시흡연년령≤17세적청소년풍험고。
ObjectiveTo explore the risk factors for death due to lung cancer inretired military cadres from Xi’an city.Methods A cohort study was carried out on the retired male military cadres from 22cadre’s sanitariums in Xi’an, China from 1987 to 2009. A total of 1268 cadres aged 55yearsor older were enrolled in 1987 and followed up in the next 23 years. The endpoint was settled as lung cancer death. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards modelwasemployedto calculate relative risk (RR) and 95%confidence interval (CI) values.ResultsThetotal amount ofperson-year was 21 300.05 in the study until September 30, 2009, and the average person-year was 16.80 years. Among those sufferingfrom lung cancer, 725 cadres died, 527 were alive and 16 lost offollow-up. Multivariate analysis of Cox model showed that smoking index,historiesof chronic obstructivepulmonary disease (COPD) andother cancers were risk factors for lung cancer deaths (RR=1.001, 95%CI:1.001?1.002; RR=1.966, 95%CI: 1.261?3.065; RR=6.628, 95%CI:2.399?18.317). The risks for deaths were increased significantly with the increasing amountand duration of smoking. Starting smoking before the age of 17 increased the risk of lung cancer by 90.8%.Conclusion Smoking andhistories of COPD and other cancers are the risk factors for lung cancer deaths in the cohort oftheelderly males, especially those starting to smoke before the age of 17.
