CAJ | 학술논문

由于地质构造复杂和地质特征参数难以预测，复杂地层钻井具有高风险与高投入的特点。因此，井下工程风险程度的合理判别，对于钻井工程方案的风险决策具有重要的意义。针对这一问题，建立了基于风险概率和模糊理论的风险程度判别模型。首先，对常见井下工程风险进行风险概率计算；然后，在此基础上结合井史资料中的事故记录，利用模糊数学理论构造不同程度区间的隶属度函数；最后，根据隶属度进行区间划分，从而实现工程风险的程度判别。应用该方法对西部某地区的钻井资料进行实例分析，结果表明，该方法的判别结果与工程实际情况基本吻合，满足工程实际需要，能够为钻井工程方案设计提供风险判断依据。
유우지질구조복잡화지질특정삼수난이예측，복잡지층찬정구유고풍험여고투입적특점。인차，정하공정풍험정도적합리판별，대우찬정공정방안적풍험결책구유중요적의의。침대저일문제，건립료기우풍험개솔화모호이론적풍험정도판별모형。수선，대상견정하공정풍험진행풍험개솔계산；연후，재차기출상결합정사자료중적사고기록，이용모호수학이론구조불동정도구간적대속도함수；최후，근거대속도진행구간화분，종이실현공정풍험적정도판별。응용해방법대서부모지구적찬정자료진행실례분석，결과표명，해방법적판별결과여공정실제정황기본문합，만족공정실제수요，능구위찬정공정방안설계제공풍험판단의거。
Due to the fact that the geological structures are complex and the geological feature parameters are hard to predict, the drilling operation in complex formations is characterized by high risk and high investment. Therefore, reasonable discrimination of downhole engineering risk degrees is of great signiifcance to risk decision for drilling engineering program. For this problem, a model is built for discriminating the risk degree based on risk probability and fuzzy theory. Firstly, calculate the risk probability of common downhole engineering risks. Then, based on which and in conjunction with the incident records in the well history data use fuzzy mathematical theory to construct the subordinating degree function between various degree intervals. Finally, delineate the intervals according to subordinating degree, hence realizing the discrimination of engineering risk degrees. After outlining its discriminating principle, then the drilling data from somewhere in the west is taken as an example. Example analysis shows that the discriminating result of this method almost agrees with the actual engineering and satisifes the real need of drilling engineering and can provide basis for risk discrimination for the design of drilling engineering program.